some trouble hands, played bad, need some help

[Fnord]

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No, it isn't. 12 outs with one card to come is 2.83 to 1. 2 BB to win 9 BB is 4.5 to 1.


[/ QUOTE ]

My chart has it at 26.1%

[MicroBob]

i maintain that calling down is okay here.
yes....you are behind a lot of hands.
but there are quite a few that you are ahead of as i stated earlier.


why is it so impossible for this guy to have Ah or AJ, AQ, AK or even KT (which i think is VERY possible here)?

yes, he could have KJ, KQ, 2 hearts or AT (or even T9)....but just because he bets the turn doesn't mean he HAS to have one of these hands.

the possibility that he has just part of this board and/or is still just drawing to improve is decent, isn't it?

[JTG51]

My chart has it at 26.1%

Yes, that is correct. The problem is, you're mixing up odds and probabilities.

12 outs = 2.83 to 1 = 1/3.86 = 26.1%

Getting 9 to 2 pot odds means you have to win twice for every nine times you lose in order to break even, not win twice out of every nine times. In other words you have to win 2/11 of the time, not 2/9, which is about 18.2%

Does that make more sense?

[davebytheway]

Your chart is right: 26.1% = 2.83:1

Remember, when calculating odds, you have to subtract 1

[davebytheway]

Oops - too slow! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]