AJs in CO - Page 2

prrthd · #11 08-19-2004, 11:03 AM

For your entertainment [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

River: (8.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 shows 7s Qs (one pair, queens).
MP3 shows 3h 3c (three of a kind, threes).
Hero shows As Js (one pair, aces).
Outcome: MP3 wins 14.25 BB.

Entity · #12 08-19-2004, 11:06 AM

That's got to be one of the ugliest-played sets I've seen in a while. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

nolanfan34 · #13 08-19-2004, 12:16 PM

The only thing I can imagine is maybe he's going for the check-raise on the turn. But since he didn't re-raise you on the river, probably not.

I had a similar hand last night, where a passive opponent waited until the river to come alive. I had AA and had raised PF, been betting the flop and turn and got called by two opponents the whole way. On the river the board is something like KT632r. I get checked to, bet, guy on the button raises and the SB 3-bets. WTF? I was pretty sure now I was beat, but the pot was big enough that I had to call two cold. SB turns over 66 for the flopped set. Button had K9?

Anyway, I was just glad SB saved me some bets.

Generally I just call the river here because of the flush possibility on the board, and the chance with three opponents that someone may have been planning a CR on me if I bet the turn there.

prrthd · #14 08-19-2004, 12:26 PM

I just stared in disbelief that he had a set all along and never bet. I just could not beleive it, but it did make me laugh.

DMBFan23 · #15 08-19-2004, 12:31 PM

For a value based river raise, don't you need to be good not only most of the time (here I use "most" to mean I have good pot equity - which I believe to be the case here) but also be good 55% of the time that you are called? (I think the 55% is an estimation by sklansky to compensate for the times you get reraised).

I question the that you are called part on this particular hand, with that board.

tiltaholic · #16 08-19-2004, 01:12 PM

hey DMB-
I just don't know.
I see your point, and maybe "raising for value" is not the correct term to describe this situation. My concept of value raising/betting is something very vague at this point, and goes something like - "If your opponents are likely to call with a second best hand...and do some magic hand waving". So say against three opponents on the river, with this board it is checked to me. I would bet "for value" since it is likely they will call with a 2nd best hand. Perhaps I don't have a >50% chance of winning this hand, but every time this situation occurs there are 8BB in the pot, I don't need to win 50% of the time, I need to win more than 1 in 8 (or 11 times) to profit. So if my chance of winning the hand is <50% I can still profit by getting extra bets in the pot now. From that point of view, raising is also more likely to get people to fold and should help tilt the scale more in my favor....but I guess people are more likely to call 1 with a losing hand than 2...

In this case I fear the flush (unlikely), a set (unlikely), and exactly A9, A8, A3 (I may not remember the hand completely, but you get the picture.) I like my chances...

??I don't know, maybe this only applies to betting vs checking the river, and not raising when it comes around.
-t

DMBFan23 · #17 08-19-2004, 01:28 PM

good distinction...I would bet if checked to, I think people would call 1 with a worse hand. I dont think anyone would call 2 cold with something I beat though. and I'd have to have button beat over half the time that he called my raise for it to be profitable, even HU. hmm, let me think about this some more...