Flopped the nut and never raised, something has to be wrong here.

[elindauer]

Who has a set? It's been bet-call-call-call so far. Putting someone on a set is weak-tight thinking, IMO.

[elindauer]

Your mathematical analysis is just wrong and is almost certainly costing you money. It's obvious that you're a smart guy and you've thought about the game, so let this serve as an honestly helpful but harshly real notice that you need to think about the math more.

Either that, or your thoughts aren't coming across as you intend them. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

good luck.
Eric

[Richard Berg]

I knew this post would invite flames [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Let's have at it.

Ultra-simple at first. You are heads-up; you flop the nuts; your opponent is drawing dead. All that matters is getting your opponent to put as many bets in the pot as possible. So long as you don't fold or anything retarded, the correct play depends entirely on the other player's tendencies -- it's a pure game theoretic situation.

Change it to where the villian has a single perfect-perfect draw. The math now requires some reasoning under uncertainty, but approaching it like the first situation would be a very fair approximation.

Change it (much) further to ike's situation. His hand may have even more vulnerabilities, but with only one card to come his pot equity is certainly well over half. You cannot put a good number on the EV of various plays without knowing whether that equity is 65% or 95%, but you can still rank them (i.e., choose the right one).

[Richard Berg]

Probably nobody has a set. Which is why you don't need to worry about "charging draws."

[CrackerZack]

PF and I'd probably raise the flop as no one believes you then.

[CrackerZack]

This is incorrect.

Doubling the amount they have to call cuts the odds the pot is laying them by half. Less if they're on the payment plan but overall the street costs them more. As for this hand there could be a better flush draw on the turn and a T for a 3 out straight draw. While the 3 outer isn't calling correctly, he doesn't know that and will go on.