Firing the second barrel - a discussion - Page 2

MarkD · #11 08-04-2004, 11:36 PM

with all those low cards and a BB defender, I feel a check-raise coming most of the time.

I think this is important.

So between hand 1 and hand 2 it apears that you are more afraid of a check raise in the first hand because of the very low board and this sways you from betting to checking (since hand 1 and hand 2 are similar in terms of number of outs).

It also appears that you think we need to fold the river unimproved in both these hands if we get check raised. I think this is probably correct.

In hand 3 there is almost no river card we can be comfortable with if our opponent bets into us after we check through on the turn. Combined with the number of draws on board and I think this throws the decision to check/bet towards betting but also think we are in a very bad spot here once check raised. We have to be good a little over 25% of the time which seems like a lot if we get check raised. (This doesn't include the times where we are ahead on the turn but he draws out on us on the river, so I would increase this percentage to over 30%). I think if we get check raised in hand 3 we have to fold, but I hate it. Actually, it's probably correct for us to call the turn and fold the river since we would be getting around 7-1 on the turn.

Maybe there is a general maxim for these situations such as: It is incorrect to call on the river unimproved after calling a check raise on the turn. (I'm certainly not convinced of this but think it's highly probable even though we would be getting 9-1.)

sthief09 · #12 08-05-2004, 12:07 AM

It is incorrect to call on the river unimproved after calling a check raise on the turn.

I don't understand why you believe this is true. I routinely call down check-raises in spots where I think it's likely my opponent had a draw and missed, and often I'll win the pot. the semi-bluff check-raise is the most overused play in the games I play in. this may be different at 15/30 though. Now, I can guarantee that I've lost money by calling down too much after being check-raised, but since I call routinely, I notice that they often have nothing. there's got to be some way to figure out when it's right to call or not.

I'm going to go through my db and post some hand examples.

[cue] I wonder where StellarWind is. [/cue]

me454555 · #13 08-05-2004, 12:08 AM

First I'd like to start off by saying, good thread. This is something that I've been thinking about for a while. Eds book provides a little bit of insight but I there is more to that needs to be said.

To decide whether or not to bet, you've got to look at all the factors in the hand namely

1) Are you ahead or behind?
2) If you're behind, how many outs do you have?
3) What is the chance he will fold
4) How often has he check raised?
5) What's my table image?
6) How big is the pot?

Only by taking all those into consideration can you make the correct decision.

Hand 1:

I think you're oppoent is likely to be ahead about 70% of the time. I think if you're behind you've got 15 good outs.

I don't think he's too likely to c/r you b/c he'd need 2 pair to do it.

You've got a flushdraw, gutshot, and an overcard as outs. Combine all that w/the fact that he might fold and you might be ahead and I think you have definate bet here.

Hand 2:

This hand is simlar to hand 1 w/1 difference. Your opponent limped from MP instead of being big blind. Since he voluntarily joined the pot before you raised, I think he's more likely to have real hand than in hand 1. My range of hands (Axs, pp, suited connector like 56 or better). More likely than not you'll be ahead and if you're not, you've got 2 overcards and a flush draw to save you on the river. 15 outs plus the fact that you might be ahead or he might fold, I think you bet

Hand 3:

This one is a little bit different b/c you don't have a flush draw and you have the best non paired hand. B/c of the Q high flop, I think you're opponent has some piece of it or a pp, otherwise he'd probobly fold on the flop. You only have 6 outs if you're behind here.

What hand would your opponent fold for 1 bet that you're behind? I can't really think of any hand b/c the 9 isn't really a scare card and he called the flop. I think you gotta check behind on this one and take the free card. If you're ahead, you probobly have one of his 2 cards covered and if you're behind he's not going to fold.

I usually make it a point to fold to a c/r unless I have the odds to chase a draw, I.E. call in hands 1 and 2 but fold hand 3 b/c even if I make top pair, it may not be good.

sthief09 · #14 08-05-2004, 12:19 AM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 7 folds, BB calls,

Flop: (4.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

River: (7.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB
Main Pot: 9.16 BB, between BB and Hero. > Pot won by BB (9.16 BB).

Results in white below: 
BB shows 4c Qc (two pair, queens and fours).
Hero shows Ac Kd (high card, ace).
Outcome: BB wins 9.16 BB. 

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP3 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB
Main Pot: 8.25 BB, between Hero and BB. > Pot won by BB (8.25 BB).

Results in white below: 
BB shows 2d As (two pair, eights and twos).
Hero shows Kh Ad (one pair, eights).
Outcome: BB wins 8.25 BB. 

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 4 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

River: (9 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB
Main Pot: 11 BB, between Button and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (11 BB).

Results in white below: 
Hero shows Ah Kc (one pair, threes).
Button shows 4h Ad (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero wins 11 BB. 

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 5 folds, BB calls,

Flop: (7.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.66 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.66 BB
Main Pot: 9.66 BB, between Hero and MP1. > Pot won by MP1 (9.66 BB).

Results in white below: 
Hero shows Qs Ad (high card, ace).
MP1 shows Ah 3c (straight, six high).
Outcome: MP1 wins 9.66 BB.

tree_stump · #15 08-05-2004, 12:23 AM

1 - I probably check - there's too many low cards out and the BB is defending... I'm probably beat here, and even if I'm not he'll chase (and maybe even call a river bet), so it's going to cost me 2.5 big bets more often than not.

2 & 3 - I bet almost 100% of the time (#2 because of the flush draw and possible boat, and #3 because it's a minorly scary board)

Although, if I don't have any reads yet, I'll probably bet #1 to see how the BB responds.

I really use two criteria when deciding whether or not I'm going to semi-bluff multiple times (and when both criteria match, I often bet the turn and river as well - people seem to fold to those bets almost 75% of the time, even if they have me beat):

1. My table image. I usually have the image of someone who will only bet and raise with the best hand, and I do my best to cultivate it. If I feel that the players in the game respect my raises, I'm more inclined to semi-bluff.

2. My reads. If I know a player is capable of letting go of a made hand just because it isn't the nuts, I'm more inclined to bluff.

Typically, if I have solid outs (flush, OESD) I bet anyway, so hand #2 is a no-brainer. However, if my two criteria are met in a certain hand (and I'm the preflop raiser), then I can ignore my cards. Nothing I love better than seeing someone muck KK to my 45o crap just because three diamonds fell. Makes steals much more profitable!

Given that, I'm not blindly aggressive. If I'm c/red, then my response depends on my cards. If I don't think I have any outs, I toss it and make sure I play solid hands for the next orbit or so. If I've got good outs or think I have the best hand, I'll either reraise or call the raiser down.

Also, if I bet the flop and I believe my criteria for a strong bluff are met, I'm betting to the river if the opponent continues to check call... Based on my results, this is a spectacularly +EV play.

MarkD · #16 08-05-2004, 12:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you believe this is true

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't, I thought it was a possibility. But, since I agree with the rest of your post completely it is obviously not a possibility and the trick is finding the balance.

The check/raise semi-bluff is the most over-used play online at all limits including 15/30 where it is quite common. Do you call it down with King high or wait util you have Ace high?

sthief09 · #17 08-05-2004, 12:46 AM

I only call down with K-high when I feel strongly that the player has nothing. I still lose a lot of the time to A-high, which is why I wait until I'm really sure. I think calling with K-high is generally a losing proposition, because a good amount of hands that your opponent semi-bluffs with include an A

BottlesOf · #18 08-05-2004, 01:07 AM

Great discussion, I'm just parsing through it. I think a lot of it (besides the 4 listed factors...or maybe a derivative of some of them) is how you've played these hands similarly during that session, both against the same opponent and different ones. This plays into how you are perceived by your opponent, and is something I can't really put into words, it's more a feeling you get, about the likely reac to your bet. Of course you consider the board and your holding/your opponent's likely holdings, but I posit that you might check the turn sometimes and bet it others, even when the board/my hand/opponent are the same.

Duggers · #19 08-05-2004, 02:32 AM

As mentioned the texture of the board is so important here. I think like Q237rb type stuff you have to bet since there is good chance you are going to get a fold and if you get c/r you are fairly sure you are beat unless it is a player who will straight bluff here.

On a board like Q10,8,5 I am more likely to check the turn with a hands like AK since I dont think there is any chance for a fold, I very well may get c/r with a worse hand than mine so I want to showdown. With something like KJ here i am definitley betting since, the small chance of a fold means more to me, I can call the c/r easily and I don't feel like I have to showdown here when I miss.

It is an interesting paradox (of course or it wouldnt be a discussion) but I tend to bet the worse hands and check the better ones (quality based on showdown value). However, it could be suggested that you have a value bet with AK that you are missing by checking. I jsut hate to get c/r'ed with AK and then have to call down 2 more BB. Additionally folding eitehr street would leave me quite succepitible to get run over.

Btw - I guess my strategy is a bit w/t since I am making decision based on being "afraid" to get c/r'ed. I try to avoid having this feeling, but my results have not been positive playing it in other ways. Also, I somewhat ignore the damage giving the free card does when HU. I worry about that much more with 2 or more opponents.

chesspain · #20 08-05-2004, 02:37 AM

I've been contemplating the other side of this: when you raise PF with overcards, are coldcalled and end up HU whiffing on some typical rag flop where it's difficult to tell, especially down in 2-4, if your opponent even has a reasonable draw or not. Then, the action goes bet-call, bet-call, check-bet-Hero????.... or bet-call, check-bet-Hero???....

On nights when I'm running bad, I feel like I'm paying off like an ATM, due to the voice in the back of my head which is saying "you know this guy coldcalls every time you raise; how could he have something every time?" And then when you do call him down he has 33, or a flopped bottom pair, or a rivered pair, etc. And after calling him down a couple of times and losing, you may start folding, and then wonder "did I get bluffed out this time?"

Out of curiousity, do any of you ever follow the advice in HEFAP, which suggests that you check much more frequently on the turn when you whiff with overcards? Unfortunately, this only is effective if you plan on checkraising a significant percentage of the time on the turn when you do have a made hand--since this keeps your opponents off balance and helps to minimize their taking shots at you when you have failed overcards. However, since many opponents are moving in and out of games, or are clueless, it seems difficult to believe it can be good to check a turn HU with a premium pair on some typical board where the cards are coordinated just enough so that you have to worry about giving free cards to gutshots, flush draws and overcards.

Sorry if I've been rambling here...