Steal raises at micro limits

[antidan444]

I don't think it's +EV to see every river with just two overcards when you don't hit and others are betting the turn/river. That's why I try to bet/raise the flop to get to see the turn and river cards for 1 or 2 SB ... to give my overcards the best chance of improving cheaply.

[busguy]

You might also want to think about your "table image" if you find that you rarely have the blinds fold to a late position raise from you. If you play a tight/ aggressive style and only play your premium and value cards, I would be very surprised if you were not able to steal at LEAST a few times per session.

If you play cards like (not saying you do) 89 suited in middle position or K4 suited UTG and show those cards to the table you will NEVER be able to steal the blinds.

The reason I point this out is that generally I find that there are rarely more than 1-2 players at any .5/$1 or $1/$2 table that play a tight/aggressive style. At this level the majority of the players play WAY too many hands, (thank god) whether they actually know better or not, because it is to cheap (they think) not to.

Again if you are not one of the 1 or 2 players at your table that occasionally get a little "respect" because of how you play, then you will rarely be successful trying to "steal" the blinds.

my 2 cents

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] busguy

[kureido]

Frankly, I take simulation results with a grain of salt (unless it is exclusively preflop hand strengths).

Five million simulated hands seems like it'd be at least a decent rough approximation, but interpret the results as you may. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

We don't know what these guys are calling with.

That's exactly the point, isn't it? If they're determined to ignore your demonstration of strength and see the hand out because they think you're trying to steal, I figured we could try and analyze the benefits of exercising your advantage in this situation (hand selection) to their disadvantage (calling with any two). Group 1-4 hands win about 50% against two random hands if all three players see the river.

My question is, is it +EV for me to see every river as long as the board isn't scary??

Here are some statistics as to what the simulated hero's winning hand is comprised of (percentages are approximate) :

high card: 1.8%
pair: 33.4%
two pair: 32.8%
trips or better: 30.2%

Against someone who will call you all the way down every time, it's probably unprofitable to assume your overcards will win it for you. For two pair or above, it's likely that you'll see something you like on the flop. So maybe a happy medium would be to check through the turn if you don't like the flop and fold to a bet on the river if all you have is a non-ace overcard?

Not sure, I think we're getting into poker theory territory. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-b

EDIT: one more comment.

Sure most of the time they just have unpaired cards, but often they have a pair (more often they will have a pair then me).

That may be selective memory at work; they probably have trash hands 90% of the time if they're overzealously defending their blinds, but you (and I!) tend to remember the times they have pocket pairs or AKs than the times they fold out early and don't show 72o. But, let's expand the simulation, and give the blinds a little more credit: hero with groups 1-4 hands and the two blinds with groups 1-8 hands. Still, the hero wins more than his fair share, at 43.7%.

[kgrad5]

to be honest, steal raises at the micro limits are just not profitable.. if it works (which is rarely) your picking up at most 75 cents and people will call you with anything because any raise in that position is automatically a steal, save the raises for your good hands at micro, when you move up in limits then maybe you should try steal raising when its a big more profitable.. the key to beating the microlimits is straightforward strong play period

[kureido]

... your picking up at most 75 cents ...

Bad! You're picking up 1.5BB, and every little bit counts (just like every little loose preflop call adds up to a few hundred dollars at the end of the year). Don't think of it as 75c; the "it's just another quarter" mentality is what the unskilled players do when they cold call a raise preflop with 94o. It's a fault I'm desperately trying to correct in my own play and one of my worst leaks. If the table texture is such that I can occasionally steal the blinds, I'm going to do it. It increases profit, plain and simple.

-b

[kgrad5]

point i was trying to make is at this level no one is folding for an extra 50 cents (BB if you would like) and your gonna waste a lot of money trying to steal with hands that dont warrant it, raise with your good hands, plain and simple, i understand your BB mentality, but you have to think about your competition, and plain and simple, .5/1 does not warrant steal raises

[busguy]

Well said.

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] busguy

[busguy]

That well said was for Kureido's comment. I completely agree with him.

If you play WELL, it is completely profitable to raise/steal (at ANY limit) which is the point I was trying to make in my earlier post. If you do not play well (no offence intended) then I agree that it is probably pointless to try and steal.

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] busguy