Responding to a surprise river raise.

[WillMagic]

I just don't really see why you think the limpers will bet here. The fact that they limped suggests that they have a weak hand and they are passive, and will call with much worse hands. I think betting is mandatory here.

Will

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with this but I think what Hero is getting at is that any hand that will draw out his top pair with any sort of frequency is probably betting this flop in a 3-way pot. Then he can get a checkraise in. This is good

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see it that way, guys. I don't think pocket pairs, gutshots, and singleton high spades are betting here, yet all of these hands will gladly take a free card.

[MAxx]

Your reasoning sounds fairly solid, I cannot really present an argument to the contrary. In this spot, I do not view your kicker as weak though. I would still prefer to bet flop. There isnt anything wrong with takeing down a small pot here. You may very well still get someone to make an incorrect call on the flop. We both know that flush draws are coming along either way, but I still like to charge them. B/c you did check top pair, and you made 2 on the river... I think we can rule out that we are folding to the river raise out of fear of a set or straight. I think the decision is between just calling and reraising. I would lean towards reraising, b/c you essentially set your hand up as a sort of slow play and now you got your bite. If the other man has the better hand, that is just the breaks and that may encourage me to consider playing more straight forward and faster.

[Richard Berg]

I'm having trouble reading this. The only hands that make sense are AT, KT, T7, QJ, giving you a near-sure win/chop. However, there are a lot more ways to make QJ than the other hands. I don't think a call is terrible.

(Although: among less likely hands played super-passively, TT is combinatorically very improbable compared with A7, K7, A2, K2.)

Interesting reasoning for a flop checkraise that I'll file away for future reference, but you need to bet here.

[balkii]

[ QUOTE ]
TT is combinatorically very improbable

[/ QUOTE ]

what the [censored]... is that a word?

[Richard Berg]

Of or related to combinatorics. Google seems to agree with its authenticity.

Rephrase: "there are 9 ways he could be dealt K7 but only 1 way he could hold TT."

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
If the other man has the better hand, that is just the breaks and that may encourage me to consider playing more straight forward and faster.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. So if you're shown QJ here, you're going to start betting the flop. But, in fact, QJ made a big mistake by calling the turn, even in this unusual case where you'll pay off 4 big bets on the river. If you knew that betting would make him fold the flop, but checking would make him call the turn (perhaps encouraging him to incorrectly think of queens and jacks as outs), wouldn't that be an argument for continuing to check the flop?


-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm having trouble reading this. The only hands that make sense are AT, KT, T7, QJ, giving you a near-sure win/chop. However, there are a lot more ways to make QJ than the other hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You got it. I feared QJ, but put my opponent on exactly the hand he held, KT, and reraised. When he just called, I knew I was good, but felt uncomfortable with the risk I'd taken, and thus posted here. With 16 ways to make QJ and only 6 to make KT, it's wrong to reraise, even if I could fold to a cap, unless I'm confident my opponent would not have called the turn with the gutshot draw. I certainly was not confident of this, and in retrospect, I think I made a mistake and got lucky this hand.

my 2 cents,
Eric

[GuidoSarducci]

A-anything.

You look weak on the flop, and you appear to be making a stab at the pot on the turn. If this is 50/1 at Party, I'll bet this guy is trying to move you off the pot.

Re-raise him.

[edit]

I'm an idiot. You said right there it's 3/6. Oh well..

I'd still re-raise him.

[Kaz The Original]

Raise he has two pair. What do you think? TT or QJ?