I think I botched this hand... KQo in the CO

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the stack size situation of me and the blinds in this hand, I'm fairly certain that no matter what I do it's a fairly close decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it really isn't.

Push.

[Matt R.]

I guess we'll disagree that it's close -- I agree that pushing's better than folding though. I think it's close because it's a $10+1. Not only will people call way too much, but the players are so bad there's quite a bit of value in not putting your whole stack at risk and letting others bust out. Since I'm no where near desperate yet, 3rd in chips, and 1st and 2nd in chips are BOTH in the blinds, I think pushing in this situation is only marginally +$EV.

I'll have to see some kind of calculation on it to convince me that it's not close.

[Newt_Buggs]

Just wanted to throw out that if the $11 players are stupid enough to call with A2 then they're definitly capable of calling with weaker kings. This really isn't close.

Off of the top of my head I can't come up with a situation where a good player with 7 BB is raising less than all in unless he is holding AA against a table full of donks or is intending to put it all in on the flop.

[11t]

If you raise (as you did) you get odds to call. You are only 60/40 versus AT- and worse kings will call (kt/j) and its 55/45 versus a smaller pp. Yes sometimes you will be up against aa/kk/qq/ak/aq but the amount of times they fold and you get the pot outway the amount of times they call and win. Sometimes when they call YOU will win.

Yes there are stacks shorter than you, but folding here is beyond weak-tight and you are playing for 3rd the entire tournament.

Therefore, you cannot fold. If you get involved and you raise you must call a push. If you just push you have fold equity and people will fold.

[Matt R.]

Fair enough, and I definitely think folding is the worst choice. But, if I make a 2.5x BB raise and the SB pushes I'd be getting 1.87:1 on my call. If BB pushes I'd be getting 1.80:1. So, if SB pushed, as he did here, I'd need to be about 35% to win or better. At the 10's, most players are very passive, so if they re-raise you preflop it usually means something. Giving SB the range of AA-88, ATs+, AJo+, KQ, I'm 34.8% to win. That would make calling very borderline chipEV wise. And, considering the skill level of the lower levels, I can probably find better chip EV opportunities later where I'm not calling off my stack.

That is simply my argument for making a 2.5x BB raise and folding to a push. I was mainly getting at that I think a t375 raise would be very effective, yet it would still give me some wiggle room to get out of the hand if need be and find better opportunities later.

I see that a lot disagree, so fair enough. I just get a little annoyed sometimes when people say "Oh, do this. It's not even close. I don't need to prove it to you because I'm that good." Then talk down to you in a roundabout way without contributing much of anything. Well, I still think it's close, and I don't see how the above line is clearly the worst play on the face of the earth when I feel like I can get in better opportunites later while not crippling myself.

BTW, I agree with your post 11t. This is mostly a response to a few of the other posts (cougheihlicough). Thanks for the reply.

[Mr_J]

I don't like raising here because of exactly what happened. When someone pushes behind you're getting good odds to call. You'll be all-in anyway if they push back at you (you'll call with those odds), it's better to just push preflop and maximise your folding equity. It's possible they saw your raise as 'not wanting to risk his whole stack' and took advantage.

[rydazzle]

Hey Matt-

I understand your frustration with "just push it. period."...there is a better way to offer this (correct) information. At this point in the tourney you may feel comfy at 1.4K, but you are in trouble. It is time for fold or push poker, the skill being when to notice a push opportunity. If you want a call, raise (AA, KK). If you don't want a call, push (with KQo I wouldn't even mind a call since it is a very strong hand in this spot). Use all your leverage at once. If you do get called you get the full value of your hole cards, we've all had AA busted by non-sense.

KQo is a mixed blessing in this spot: as you said yourself, folding isn't an option, a raise just kills your leverage...so you must push. This is a great spot for a move (folds to you) with much less, be happy it with KQ [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I struggled with what you said about not putting tourney at stake and waiting for a better opportunity. I hated these murky situations w/o a locked hand for risking my buy-in too. What I have found is that these are the opportunites. You arent going to get much of a chance to outplay weak players on/after the flop anymore...blinds are too high. By not pushing here, you pass up the +EV you need to get ITM and win.

Your 2.5xBB raise thoughts are interesting, HOH2 goes into detail on making raises such that a future all-in call is more clear. I am not sure how I feel about this yet; if you raise to give yourself good odds to call a subsequent all-in, just use all your leverage in the first place...you might make a stronger hand fold (to steal from gildwulf, "youll win sklansky dollars")

sorry this is a semi-late post...I marked your post this afternoon to read later and reply when I had the time...I felt obligated since I have turned to the "push darkside" from where you are now and wanted to show you why. hope you don't mind me regurgitating some existing posts here...

[Newt_Buggs]

you're using good reasoning, but your hand range is off. "AA-88, ATs+, AJo+, KQ" is way too tight. Its been a long time since i've played an $11, but I can't imagine a game where some players won't come over the top with hands like 77 and ATo.

[curtains]

I don't think folding is nearly as bad as some pepole are saying. Anytime a hand is -EV if your hand is turned faceup, and you have almost 10x the BB (This is the case here as the blinds have you covered and button almost does), then at least some semblance case can usually be made for not moving allin. I'm not saying I'd fold, but I don't think its completely ridiculous.

[curtains]

I just ran it using eastbays program and it turns out my initial instinct was correct. Against the following range, which is well within reason for a $10 - 55+,ATo+,A8s+,KQs
the program has KQo as breakeven.

Now for all those that claimed that because the opponents would be stupid enough to call with Axo they might call with worse hands like Kxo, if you change their calling range to the top 33% of hands, which includes stuff like K5o and K2s, then pushing is about -.5% EV. So this is not a situation in which you want your opponents to be looser.

To make a long story short I would fold here, but now I say so with more confidence [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If you need more evidence, KQo is only +.2 EV if they call with 66+ and ATo+. This is relatively tight for a $11 IMO....if this is a profitable push it's profitable by only a very small margin, and if you are a skilled player this is definitely a time that greater oppurtunities could arise later.