75-150 Stud Hand: Simple Read or Pot Too Huge To Fold?

[Bartholow]

Well, it sounds from what you say about your first instinct that you had a read. Since I wasn't at the table I can't argue with that. In that case you should just fold 5th I think, though I wouldn't argue with calling one more time and then folding if raised.

[BeerMoney]

Donator,

nice post.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

His call on 3rd may of not been that bad. He may of thought the loose player was simply calling with 3 high cards etc. When you raise here he may figure you either for a pair smaller than his, or dead aces, and are trying to isolate vs the weak player - shouldn't he call either way? When it comes backed capped to him he knows you have aces and both of you are semi dead, he's getting great odds and looks to be a favorite, so he calls. At what point would this be a misplay?

Check call and fold to a raise - if he has got into this mess without trips he certainly has the odds to go to the river with only one pair unless someone makes an open pair.

If the raise comes when he catches a king, I'd be very tempted to call it down, especially if you had made two pair by that point.

Given the amount in the pot, I think you have to call to see if he raises on 5th.

As a side issue, I think you should also remember that he could have 789 or 89T suited as well as 678.

[SA125]

Excellent post. I'm sure I'd play it the same way as you and fire another bullet on 5th. To tell you the truth I don't know what I'd do if he re-raised unless I was there. But I admit folding would be a serious option.

I'd probably call and ch/f 6th UI but that just doesn't seem right. Tough spot.

[Jeffage]

To continue this....I decided to raise 5th street to see what solid would do. He coldcalled and the weaker player called. Ugh. On 6th the board looks like:

Loose Guy: (x,x) A 7 J 2

Me: (A,Q) A 3 10 4

Solid: (x,x) 8 5 9 10

This is the street I really think I choked on. Loose guy checked and I bet. I shouldn't have done this...I should have check-folded honestly. But I did bet, solid now raises and loose goes into the tank. Now, solid starts talking. "What the hell do you think I have ____ (guy's name)? I've gotta be rolled up." These two are somewhat friendly. Loose guy thinks and thinks and thinks before finally folding. This guy's mannerisms, the way the hand played out and other factors had me leaning towards folding. Then I remembered a 75-150 hold em hand I played with this same gentleman. It's important for context.

I had 10's in a 4-handed game. I open raised in the cutoff. He reraised out of the small, I called. The flop came 3-6-9r. He bet, I raised, he reraised, I called. The turn came a 2 and he bet. Then he started talking a little bit, throwing the dealer a bunch of dollar chips for a tip as I was thinking about the action. He's like, you know I have aces, why would you call? He seemed legitimately happy and the tip thing is rarely a lie. So he goes, I'll show you one, you pick. I point to the one on the right and it's an ace. So I fold. And he shows the other aces.

After ruminating on the hand, this guy's style of play and what he likely has, my reads and past experience, I folded. The solid player took the pot with no showdown. He told me later it should have been obvious he was rolled and he was surprised I gave him so much action. I believe him.

Kinda irritating hand though.

Jeff

[Alex/Mugaaz]

Well at least he made it easy for you to save another 2 bet, not a total loss.

I'm slightly confused - why does the solid villain want people to fold if he's rolled up? Is he not much better just to shut up and play out the hand to hopefully get up to four more big bets, or is this some sort of double-bluff? He must be quite well off if he can throw the possibility of $600 away just for fun. I still suspect that he only has two pair here, or even that he's making a move.

[Jeffage]

I don't know. But I've seen him do this before...on the hand against me when he had AA, his talking cost him $300 which I would have surely given him. Also, he's "solid" in the context of this game...maybe he was just cutting his loose friend a break. Maybe the pot was huge and he was happy with it and didn't want to somehow risk losing. But, in my experience, most people who do talk like this (telling you what their hand is or tipping in advance) are not lying. This is esp. true if they are regulars and scummy angle shooting will get them a bad reputation.

Also, this was not the only factor making me fold this hand. It was just one of many things I considered...mostly it was how the hand was played. Also, say he didn't have trips and wanted up both to fold...he would reraise 5th. That would be most likely to accomplish that end, I would think.

As for this guy, I don't know what his story is. He plays all the time, but he may just be loaded. He is just generally better than the average player in the game.

P.S. Even if he was out of line on 3rd, he may very well have hit trips on any of the subsequent streets. And, since his board doesn't contain a pair, I think two pair is less likely. At minimum he had two pair, and I would have had to catch on the river with him not catching...I think this is the best case scenario. Or he had trips or a straight and I'm drawing dead. Maybe check-calling and both 6th and the river was the better play, but that would cost me $150 more than this did. Though I would be sure I was right...even though I'm 99% he had rolled trips based on how the hand played and my experience.



Jeff

[Ray Zee]

i dont care too many times you get to see two pair or a pair and a straight draw making this raise. especially since he didnt do it on fifth where it was correct to do so.
even palyers that dont fool around too often will do so when the hand they are against is obvious and may go out. and if he had two pair your talking would make him think it was good.