Middle stages....survive or accumulate? (somehwat long)

[Gramps]

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FE is very important at the 20s. What you really need to hope for is the big stack to call and the little stack to get bumped out. Then you have 4 people left and your FE goes way up because no one wants to be the 4th out.

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Cool - in that case about 10-15 BB at 50/100 is where you should probably stay out of the way unless you can get a pretty favorable matchup (or it's some really short stack and even losing leaves you with 100/200 FE, etc.)

[Suited76]

Maybe my thoughts will spur a little more discussion. In a normal situation or no read on the players, 66 is clearly a fold facing a raise and an all in reraise.

Does no one think that the read on the two players, my tight table image, and a need to accumulate chips might make this a lot closer than it first appears?

I do agree that the big stack will call the short stack, but the big stack has raised 1 out of every 4 hands. I’m guessing his range is pretty wide. I’m not putting him on a premium hand.

The short stack has been over the top of him once and got him to fold a similar preflop raise (albeit with smaller blinds) so this should enforce his belief that the big stack doesn’t need a big hand to raise here. The short stack has also raised almost 1 out of every 4 hands so he’s not too picky preflop. I think the short stack’s range is pretty wide.

Since I don’t put either of them on a big hand and I believe the big stack realizes I’m tight, then he’s probably getting out of the way if I go all in. If he’s woken up with a legit big hand, then of course not. Facing a raise, reraise all in, and ANOTHER reraise all in, I’m guessing he will lay down a lot of hands even though he’s getting a good price.

If he folds, I’m playing heads up getting 1.8:1 on my money. Given the wide range of overs I’m racing with, doesn’t that seem like a good gamble? If one of them has a big pair, then so be it. At a full table I’d be pretty worried, but a table of 5 I like my chances. Am I overestimating the chance I’m not running into a bigger pair?

If either of these guys raise even 10% of the time preflop, then it’s a no-brainer fold. Given that they both raise 25% of the time does this not change anyone’s opinion? What preflop percentage would? 35%? 50% (hypothetically)

[AliasMrJones]

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Does [anyone] think that the read on the two players, my tight table image, and a need to accumulate chips might make this a lot closer than it first appears?

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No.

[Phil Van Sexton]

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At a full table I’d be pretty worried, but a table of 5 I like my chances.

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I apologize for being so rude earlier. If I see a lot of text and no use of the hand converter, I will usually just move the next post. I really thought there were only 4 players in this hand because the players were named A, B, C, and D.

The reads are fine, but get rid of everything else if you want to get more responses (ie your background, your thoughts on the hand, etc). You can respond with your thoughts after people have chimed in.

Of course, the posts with the most discussion are ones where the answer is not clear. This is a clear fold. Maybe if you change your hand to JJ, this would be more interesting.

[Suited76]

No one has any thoughts on what sort of preflop raise percentage might shift the decision?

It seems like all I'm hearing is play the cards, not the people. The point of the post was when do player reads shift the value of a hand in this situation. It's not too often that I run into two guys raising 25% of the time, but when I do, I don't want to overlook any opportunities.

Is everyone telling me that it doesn't matter if both guys raise 10% of the time or 50% of the time? All I need to do is look at my 66 and fold?

I do agree with the importance of fold equity (and wanting to guard it), but I think I'm still left with enough here to chase the big stack away a nice percentage of the time.

Thanks for everyone's thoughts so far.

[Benholio]

Your hand, your opponents' actions, your position (seat-wise, and chip wise), your opponents' tendencies, and your image are all very important factors in deciding what to do. They are not weighed equally, however, and sometimes one or two factors are strong enough that the others can't make a difference.

With your hand, your opponents' actions, and your position, there is no realistic combination of your opponents' tendencies and your image to make this anything but a fold. Your hand versus two players showing strength is just too poor. You do not have enough FE to make this worthwhile. Low pairs multi-way are just too poor.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
No one has any thoughts on what sort of preflop raise percentage might shift the decision?

It seems like all I'm hearing is play the cards, not the people. The point of the post was when do player reads shift the value of a hand in this situation. It's not too often that I run into two guys raising 25% of the time, but when I do, I don't want to overlook any opportunities.

Is everyone telling me that it doesn't matter if both guys raise 10% of the time or 50% of the time? All I need to do is look at my 66 and fold?

I do agree with the importance of fold equity (and wanting to guard it), but I think I'm still left with enough here to chase the big stack away a nice percentage of the time.

Thanks for everyone's thoughts so far.

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You are saying that the big stack is raising 25% of the time. With 5 people left, he is not the big blind 4 times per orbit. At 25%, he is raising once per orbit of the button. That's average, or below average for a big stack.

Another way to look at it, he is raising with hands in the 75th percentile or above. So any pair, Ax, any 2 broadway. He's not raising with 52o. You don't need to run pokerstove to see that 66 isn't dominating this range (but it wouldn't hurt if you did run it).

Furthermore, the shortstack likely has an even better hand than this. Why would he push knowing he's going to get called without a very good hand? He's not that desparate.

Easy fold.

The reason that the percentages don't really matter too much to me is that this is a fold no matter what. If they are only raising monsters, obviously you fold. If they are both playing any 2 cards, you fold and just sit back and watch them kill each other. There's still 7 hands left at level 4....there's no rush when people are dropping like flies.

It's simple....if they are tight, fold. If they are loose, fold. You are folding for different reasons, but it's still a fold.

[Blarg]

As Phil is getting at, and another poster implied, you are not seeing the forest for the trees. Regardless of the quality of your reads, you are still risking a lot to gain a lot. If you stay out of the way, you may get lucky and see the small stack eliminated, bringing it down to the 4 people left. And if that happens, you'll have some nice folding equity and be closer to the money.

No matter who wins, people are going to be starting to make plays that you can snap off if you get a little luck, or maybe you can win with some good cards or just steal some blinds later. Many good situations are heading for you like an out of control Mack truck, and if you are still around for them, they might hit you right in the face. Limiting your chance to see these opportunities by fighting when there are better fights to be had later is trading small potential +EV right now for larger +EV later. In essence, it doesn't even matter if you're completely in the right on this hand; you will probably have more important chances to be right, with greater reward and/or less risk, later.

[raptor517]

why is this thread this long? fold. period. there was a raise and a push. how can u possibly think 66 is ahead here. at BEST you are up against something like AJ and AQ. good luck. fold, please. holla

[Suited76]

This thread did get surprisingly long. This was a hand I folded. I did believe there was a good chance the big stack would go away if I called, but certainly call if I folded. He called and showed A9o while the short stack held ATo. I'm not trying to be results oriented and I know I could have been shown AA & KK here also.

I don't like 66. It sucks multi-way and heads up. I’ve folded it on many occasions against worse players and bigger pots. I just felt there was a good chance I could get in a heads up coin flip situation given my read on both players.

One of the responses completely disregarded the dead money in the pot which surprised me (although I am aware of the changing value of chips from TPFAP and that was a good point). Risking 545 to win 970 seemed like a nice overlay and I've been wondering if I'm neglecting the value of the overlay in some spots. The consensus is that 1.8:1 just isn't enough. I'd be curious to know how much of an overlay is required to accept a coin flip here, but maybe I'll post another hand, another day.

If I decide to pester everyone again, I'll do it with fewer details.

Thanks all.