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#11
12-12-2005, 02:38 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think this is such an easy fold. A check-raise all in to a raise and a re-raise from the person that did not even raise it up pre flop. If that is not strength I dont know what is. I feel you are beat here most of the time. I would be interested knowing more about why people think this is a good call. I would say this is a bad call withought a read. [/ QUOTE ] Scrapper, you are beat here most of the time. That isn't the point. Thhe question is: are you good 38% of the time? [/ QUOTE ] I dont tend to ask myself if I am beat a % of times. I tend to ask myself if I am beat period. 
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#12
12-12-2005, 02:40 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think this is such an easy fold. A check-raise all in to a raise and a re-raise from the person that did not even raise it up pre flop. If that is not strength I dont know what is. I feel you are beat here most of the time. I would be interested knowing more about why people think this is a good call. I would say this is a bad call withought a read. [/ QUOTE ] Scrapper, you are beat here most of the time. That isn't the point. Thhe question is: are you good 38% of the time? [/ QUOTE ] I dont tend to ask myself if I am beat a % of times. I tend to ask myself if I am beat period. [/ QUOTE ] You're joking right? You are familiar with pot equity and EV, correct? So, if SB's all-in was for another $10 you'd fold?
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#13
12-12-2005, 02:43 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
obviously he wouldnt fold in that spot. I tend to agree with scrapper. On such a slightly +EV play that has so much variance, and actually guarantees you losing the majority of the time i would advocate folding, unless you really like big swings and hope that everyone else at the table sees your call. Still i really dont see the point in calling when you can still get away relatively cheaply.
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#14
12-12-2005, 02:44 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
Well, you're right. He could have a set. But I think it's more likely he's on a super draw. Why would he bet all in? It seems like he is trying to end the hand with the all in. I see this mostly when an aggressive player is on a draw and knows if he gets called, he has a good draw to his monster.
So, yah. You can't totally eliminate a set. But that's my thinking.
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#15
12-12-2005, 02:44 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think this is such an easy fold. A check-raise all in to a raise and a re-raise from the person that did not even raise it up pre flop. If that is not strength I dont know what is. I feel you are beat here most of the time. I would be interested knowing more about why people think this is a good call. I would say this is a bad call withought a read. [/ QUOTE ] Scrapper, you are beat here most of the time. That isn't the point. Thhe question is: are you good 38% of the time? [/ QUOTE ] I dont tend to ask myself if I am beat a % of times. I tend to ask myself if I am beat period. [/ QUOTE ] You're joking right? You are familiar with pot equity and EV, correct? So, if SB's all-in was for another $10 you'd fold? [/ QUOTE ] I make money from people that try and think out reasons to call a bet like this. I only need to be good 38% of the time is not a reason without a read IMO. Plz dont patronize.
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#16
12-12-2005, 02:47 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
[ QUOTE ]
Well, you're right. He could have a set. But I think it's more likely he's on a super draw. Why would he bet all in? It seems like he is trying to end the hand with the all in. I see this mostly when an aggressive player is on a draw and knows if he gets called, he has a good draw to his monster. So, yah. You can't totally eliminate a set. But that's my thinking. [/ QUOTE ] I put him directly on a strait. Maybe not the nut strait. He is protecting his hand from the flush draw and higher strait draws. I am not the greatest hand reader but this is what jumped out at me.
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#17
12-12-2005, 02:48 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
[ QUOTE ]
obviously he wouldnt fold in that spot. I tend to agree with scrapper. On such a slightly +EV play that has so much variance, and actually guarantees you losing the majority of the time i would advocate folding, unless you really like big swings and hope that everyone else at the table sees your call. Still i really dont see the point in calling when you can still get away relatively cheaply. [/ QUOTE ] To be clear, I'm speaking about the situation where we are sure that we are 43% to win against villain. Just to reference my admittedly arbitrary figures, Hero was 43% to win against villain's range. Given that hero only needs to be good 38% of the time, this is not really that marginal. 5% is no joke. As long as you are adequately bankrolled, 5% is an advantage that you should be taking every time.
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#18
12-12-2005, 02:54 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
[ QUOTE ]
I make money from people that try and think out reasons to call a bet like this. I only need to be good 38% of the time is not a reason without a read IMO. Plz dont patronize. [/ QUOTE ] I'm sorry, but you are stating that you make money off of people who try to maximize their edges and make +EV decisions? Please, don't patronize me. That is a foolish statement.
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#19
12-12-2005, 03:00 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
That would mean he stayed in with Q10. Not totally out of the question, but a very loose call IMO, when facing the raises. But with this loose table, maybe you're right.
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#20
12-12-2005, 03:04 AM
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Re: all-in - draw?
Honestly I think the range shrinks when the first person checks, there is a raise, then a huge re-raise, then the first person who is also a large stack moves all-in. A small stack moves in I call. The pre flop raiser moves all in I call. I call an all-in with top 2 the vast majority of the time. I am taking everything into consideration when I am folding here. Including that I might have the best hand.
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