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  #11  
Old 07-12-2005, 03:10 PM
jhall23 jhall23 is offline
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Default Re: Should I bother calling this flop all-in w/ AA?

I was just giving an example to point out how misleading the stat is with so few hands and that we can't conclude that he has never bet or raised post flop by that stat.

Honestly if anything I would bet he has bet at least some of hands he has been in post flop, but regardless if he still has a 0 that means he is probably typically not getting involved much post flop.
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  #12  
Old 07-12-2005, 07:49 PM
TreyOfLight TreyOfLight is offline
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Default Re: Should I bother calling this flop all-in w/ AA?

[ QUOTE ]
If he's VPIP 56, that means he's seen 18+ hands. Never once betting or raising in 18 hands. What does that tell you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say 18 flops seen (since you can put money in preflop and not see a flop). With a wide starting range, he could expect to flop TP maybe three times.

So one of those three was a monotone flop, and one was TP on 236 and check-folded to the preflop raiser, and on the third he actually bet out but his one bet is concealed by rounding error and the 15 calls he made in the same period of time.

And there is is: a "perfect" zero AF, all from perfectly normal and un-mouselike play. You could just as easily theorize that he's a TAG frustrated by a wave of dead cards and lashing out with nothing.
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  #13  
Old 07-12-2005, 11:30 PM
TheWorstPlayer TheWorstPlayer is offline
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Default Re: Should I bother calling this flop all-in w/ AA?

I think if he's pushing against a preflop raiser AND a caller, he has you beat here most of the time. However, you only need to call another $60 into a $185 pot. So you only need to be ahead 25% of the time. The guy seems loose passive, but you don't have a lot of hands on him. Are you ahead here 25% of the time? Close. I haven't played in that game and I haven't played full ring in a while. In the NL100 6max on Party, I say you are ahead around 30-40% of the time, FWIW. You would have a much better estimate for the NL200 FR on UB.
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