Turned straight being 3-bet

[felix83]

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I'd call down.

The thing i'm curious about is the flop bet. What exactly does betting this flop accomplish? I just really don't see any reason to auto-bet into 5 opponents on a weak draw, especially in a game like this where nobody is folding. Do we really expect to "free up outs" here?

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You are right, I obviously misplayed the flop. What do you think was the best way to play on the flop: check/call, check/fold?

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You have no reason to fold the flop; you still have overs that could be somewhat clean, and the outs for the straight. Shouldn't assume someone has a J. I'd check call, and probably cap the turn. Strange play from MP1 on the river, but I think bet-calling is best. Boat is possible with QJ or JT, but often a guy will just check his KJ or AJ 3 handed on the river there, so you want to get a bet in in that spot.

[krimson]

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I'd call down.

The thing i'm curious about is the flop bet. What exactly does betting this flop accomplish? I just really don't see any reason to auto-bet into 5 opponents on a weak draw, especially in a game like this where nobody is folding. Do we really expect to "free up outs" here?

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You are right, I obviously misplayed the flop. What do you think was the best way to play on the flop: check/call, check/fold?

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Definitely don't fold for one bet! If you check and it's 2 or 3 back to you then this becomes a tougher situation. I'd probably make a crying call for 2 and fold for 3. But it really depends on my reads on the people putting in those raises.

I like capping the turn. No one's folding anyway, you may not be up against the full house yet and you're sneaking one more bet in there without the possibility of getting raised.

I think I bet out the river, as that's the best way to get at least one bet out of the likely loser, the guy in MP. If the button raises we pay off the raise. If MP raises and Button 3-bets I can consider folding, but I want to charge the maximum for anyone holding KJ/AJ or K9 here.

This is awful advice. I can understand just calling the turn and check/calling the river if you're convinced we're behind that often, but we cannot fold this without at least some heavy river action.

Doing some analysis, there are 6 combos of JT, 6 combos of QJ, one combo of JJ, 3 combos of QQ and 3 combos of TT we're behind, for a total of 19 combinations.

There are 6 combos of AJ, 6 combos of KJ, 12 combos of K9 and 16 combos of 98 we're ahead of, for a total of 40 combinations. Even if you restrict it to K9s and 98s, that's 19 combinations total.

You really want to fold when we're ahead a majority of the time here?

A two-flush board that reads JJQT, and that has been bet, raised, and re-raised is pretty scary. While you can certainly make arguments that the raising is coming from a smaller str8 or trip jacks, I think you need to seriously recognize how often you are not in good shape.

Some of the time you will be chopping with AK.

Some of the time you will be drawing dead.

Also, the number of redraws you face are also staggering--even if you aren't willing to credit a boat, you must credit at least trip jacks. With trip jacks, villains have 10 draws to a boat or quads, plus potential flush draws on top of that.

Now add in the fact that you're stuck between the raiser and bettor, and that in order to see the showdown, it is potentially going to cost you 5-7 more big bets. I just can't justify calling here.

Admittedly, you fold the best hand sometimes, but the board is really atrocious. Certainly, reads help a lot in this position.

Let's put it differently: Suppose the game were a no-limit game. Would you call here? The possibility of lots more aggressive betting on the river makes calling the turn unattractive to me.

[alul]

Ok, here are the results.

I call, MP1 calls.

Button had QJ for flopped full house. MP1 showed his cards even though he did not have to. He had K9 for second best str8.

I was on tilt for like 10 minutes berating myself for calling this down. But on the other hand, if you fold this every time you probably should not play limit poker. I'm still not sure. That's why I posted the hand here. So it looks like most of you guys advise calling down or do I miss something?

You played it fine. (Though I still argue a turn cap is OK since you can't get reraised.) Remember, there's plenty of times when button will have AJ.

Fine, but this is NOT a no limit game. So, half the time we're drawing dead here, maybe, and the other half of the time we have the best hand with perhaps a third of the deck that has us beat (granted, 10 outs make the FH a certainty but there aren't 9 pure outs to the flush because they don't have the draw every time). We will win, then, a monster pot 33 % of the time and lose 4 or 5 bets the other 66 % of the time. I'm OK with that sort of situation, and I think it's + EV at this point.

Assuming the turn gets capped, it will cost you 3 more BBs to call the turn, and the implied pot size (assuming both villains come along for the cap), will be 15 BBs. But this 15BBs needs to be discounted:

Chop: AK (9)
You are drawing dead: JT, JQ, JJ, QQ, or TT (19)
You are ahead but they are live: AJ, KJ (12)
You are ahead, they are drawing dead: K9, 98 (28)

Total possible combos: 68

Chop = 9/68 = 13%
You dead = 28%
You ahead, they are alive = 18%
They dead = 41%

Of the 18% trip jack scenarios, 30% of the time they will draw out on you on the river, and 70% of the time the board won't pair.

So the trip jack 18% really is:
You ahead, but they draw out on you: 6%
You ahead and stay ahead: 12%

So of the 15 BBs in the pot, on a discounted basis, you get the following:

AKChop(15*13%*50%) + BoatOnTurn(15*28%*0) + TripJack[(6%*0)+(12%*15)] + They'reDead(41%*15) = 8.9 BBs

This pot on the turn is paying you 8.9-to-3, or roughly 3:1 Yet on the turn, you are drawing dead 28% of the time, and will be dead by the river an additional 6% of the time. To be EV neutral, you need 2:1 or better.

You have an overlay of sorts (2:1 vs. 3:1), however consider that I have ignored flush redraws on the river, and I have also ignored the implied cost of seeing the showdown on the river (where it could be bet and raised again).

If you believe that the real cost of getting to showdown is more like 5-6BBs, a call on the turn is really slender. There's just not a ton of EV to the call, and it adds a lot of variance to your results.

Just my 2 cents. (PS--I did the math fast, so I may have errors, but you get the idea of my thinking.)

I just cant see calling here.

[alul]

I indicated in the beginning of the post that both opponents were LAGs. I think this allows to discount QQ, JJ and maybe TT (they would reraise preflop). Unfortunatelly I'm not really a math guy so if you could redo the math considering this I'd really appreciate it.