15/30 - questionable on a few streets, 75s

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
You won't be able to realize a lot of that equity. If you miss the flop you're going to have a hell of a time winning the pot. It's what maniacs are good at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lets assume we have 50% equity, which I think is an underestimate. A hand like 75s will connect with about 60% of flops, and if we choose to take our free card, we will sometimes even be able to continue on the turn. So, We are reaching showdown about 2/3 of the time, and so don't realize 1/3 of our equity. This means that we are taking a 1/3 of a SB loss by raising preflop. If we are successful at stealing all the blind money 12% of the time, we make this up immediately.

On top of this, I think we will have a higher postflop edge by raising preflop rather than limping. Granted, it won't be much, since he is a maniac, but it is another slight benefit.