50/100 party hand I was sweated on

[mike l.]

i added more to my post.

anyway it's not a very good flop for hero. if a K comes will hero like it a lot? a Q? an A? a 9? this flop is pretty troublesome. what if hero bets each street until raised and then check-folds the next street barring improvement? oh he could bet-fold that turn as well. but let's say he bets the flop and gets raised, he can check-fold the turn. sometimes AK and AQ will take the free card there.

yes im pretty sure that's the way to play this. check-call, check-call just doesnt work here. either you find out youre ahead and make him pay (or put him to the test or give him a free card or whatever) or find out youre beat and dont chase when youre not sure what youre chasing for (classic reverse implied odds disaster time). but dont check-call thus representing AQ and letting him have his way with you. when you do that you have to call the river, and i think you can save a fraction of a bet in there somewhere when you find out youre beat earlier.

[mike l.]

.

[mike l.]

"No, good players will value raise AJ and better usually."

in which case you fold, but if he has AK or AQ or 77 or 99 or whatever you get paid sometimes. i think betting the river is strong if you make the mistake of check-calling the flop and turn and feel compelled to put in exactly one more bet. it's better than check-call.

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
To the muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree. I'd be much more inclined to muck if he bet in rhythm, but the 3-second wait by this kind of player against BK's kind of player is so often a false false-tell. I'd call and expect to see KQ/AQ 25-50% of the time. I guess I could 99 or even 77 in there too, but AK isn't betting here.

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
To the muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree. I'd be much more inclined to muck if he bet in rhythm, but the 3-second wait by this kind of player against BK's kind of player is so often a false false-tell. I'd call and expect to see KQ/AQ 25-50% of the time. I guess I could 99 or even 77 in there too, but AK isn't betting here.

[/ QUOTE ]

25-50%? You're in la la land. An 8 pfr isn't even 3 betting KQo here, probably not even KQs. Betting the river, however, is compelling. I still think a check-fold is better than a check-call by a fairly wide margin.
-James

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
"No, good players will value raise AJ and better usually."

in which case you fold, but if he has AK or AQ or 77 or 99 or whatever you get paid sometimes. i think betting the river is strong if you make the mistake of check-calling the flop and turn and feel compelled to put in exactly one more bet. it's better than check-call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have not played in a online game yet (and i admit to never playing higher than 50-100, so this isnt universally true) where players don't make silly errors in terms of bluffing or value betting a worse hand here to make not seeing showdown an option on the river assuming you are putting in one bet. Basically i feel if we are going to put in a bet, lets [censored] showdown the hand. There are so few worse hands that will call bets here, and let's not put ourselves in a sitatuion where we can get bluff raised, it doesn't havta happen very often to [censored] you. I definitly pop the river from time to time after someone donks it with this action.

[lil feller]

hmmm...

I'm shocked that I of all people am the first to mention this, since i'm normally a nit. 16VPIP is pretty snug. Do you have any info on his fold river %, or fold to c/r %? I'm wondering if the pause was deciding to make a value bet (that he considers thin) with an overpair or a strong J. If so, is he tight enough to fold to a c/r? I know online this sort of move usually won't work, but your hand does look somewhat like a b/d flush draw (unless you'd normally c/r the turn and he knows that).

Thoughts?

lf

[J_V]

I like check-call, check-call, check-fold.

Unless you got something from the pause on the river, that is the best line.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
hmmm...

I'm shocked that I of all people am the first to mention this, since i'm normally a nit. 16VPIP is pretty snug. Do you have any info on his fold river %, or fold to c/r %? I'm wondering if the pause was deciding to make a value bet (that he considers thin) with an overpair or a strong J. If so, is he tight enough to fold to a c/r? I know online this sort of move usually won't work, but your hand does look somewhat like a b/d flush draw (unless you'd normally c/r the turn and he knows that).

Thoughts?

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

On that river, almost no hands value bet and then fold to a c/r. And by almost no hands, i mean he might have played 99 this way 1 in 250 times, and then he might call the river raise only half the time, so i don't see c/r'sing as option.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
hmmm...

I'm shocked that I of all people am the first to mention this, since i'm normally a nit. 16VPIP is pretty snug. Do you have any info on his fold river %, or fold to c/r %? I'm wondering if the pause was deciding to make a value bet (that he considers thin) with an overpair or a strong J. If so, is he tight enough to fold to a c/r? I know online this sort of move usually won't work, but your hand does look somewhat like a b/d flush draw (unless you'd normally c/r the turn and he knows that).

Thoughts?

lf

[/ QUOTE ]

On that river, almost no hands value bet and then fold to a c/r. And by almost no hands, i mean he might have played 99 this way 1 in 250 times, and then he might call the river raise only half the time, so i don't see c/r'sing as option.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was an off the wall sort of thought that is really player dependant. I've never played in that game, and I don't pretend to know the players, but some of the 15-16 VPIP guys would bet KK on that river, get c/r, look at the third diamond and click on the fold button hard with disgust. Obviously its a long shot, and probably a dumb move, but it might have merit against the right kind of player...maybe a VPIP 9 or something would be a better candidate then a 16
lf