Party 15/30 - AJs

[Roy Hobbs]

I don't think you have enough of a hand to be three betting here.

On the river, whether to bet is fairly player dependent...I'd bet here against a player who will fold unimproved AK here, but would check against a player, like many, who will call with any pair or AK.

RH

[China Willy]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you have enough of a hand to be three betting here.

On the river, whether to bet is fairly player dependent...I'd bet here against a player who will fold unimproved AK here, but would check against a player, like many, who will call with any pair or AK.

RH

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Hobbs and others who suggest that, absent a specific read, this bad boy should be in the muck pre-flop.

As for the rest, I think exist's post is spot on here. You gotta just hope he has a draw that he missed and Ace high is good. I don't see this dude having AK here... He called PF and then led the flop with a whiffed AK? Doubtful...

Check and pray.

-CW

[mplspoker]

It seems relatively obvious to me that if you are always 3 betting AJs from a raise from EP - that is why you are losing a lot of money on the hand.. I can't think of a hand that a decent player would raise that a 3 bet would be correct? Unless i knew the player was a nut i would chuck the hand unless there was at least 3 callers. This hand makes the most money when you hit the flush,straight or 2pair vs. a raiser - why 3 bet and get it heads up?

[Schneids]

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After over 7,000 hands, AJs has been a loser for me, which probably means I take it too far when I miss, knowing me.

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have you looked at how many times you've actually been dealt AJs in this period of time? over 7000 hands you should have gotten it like 20 times. do you believe that is a large enough sample size to draw any kind of a conclusion?

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Astro, I'm wondering how many you'd consider to be statistically significant? I'm up to 143,000 hands in my PT Database, and with AQs at 449 times AQs is only +.01BB/hand.

Leak in my game or still too small to mean anything?

[mplspoker]

I think that the reason you guys aren't making any money on AJs and AQs is that you are calling raises from EP and three betting into trap hands a lot....

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that the reason you guys aren't making any money on AJs and AQs is that you are calling raises from EP and three betting into trap hands a lot....

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the feedback but I'm not really looking for any suggestions on how to play the hand. I just want to know the likelihood the stats can still be an aberration.

Additionally, a majority of those hands have occured shorthanded, so I would guess pushing two far with ace-high against opponents I shouldn't be pushing against is a more likely factor than simply playing the hand, since I can remember like twice ever that I've folded AQs PF in short handed (but if this were true than I would question why AJs, AKs, AKo, or AQo are nowhere near where AQs is...hence my question about whether this could still be an aberration).

[mplspoker]

sorry didn't know about most hands occuring in short handed situations, was thinking full ring game...

[builtiz]

I would probably just cold-call the two against any reasonable/mediocore player. If the UTG player is very good/tight agress. I may fold. If the UTG player is a complete maniac (raising with 10-8s etc.) I would 3-bet.


Think about it this way. You cold call the two preflop. You get you flush draw on the flop. The UTG player bets, say the blinds also called the additional bet preflop, you call the flop bet since you don't want to drive out customers.

On the turn you pick up additional out with the GS. Now you have the option of semi-bluffing a Q and possibly taking the pot right there. A lot of (weak) players will lay down their jacks to a raise here. Also by raising you my clear out some additional outs if you get hands like A-10, A-6 to fold.

3-betting and firing all the way makes it easy for an opp to call since its one bet on every round. If you think about it, raising the turn only cost you and additional 15$ since you saved 15$ by not re-raising preflop.

River play is questionable, if you think the only way you can win is to bet then you probably should, if you think your opp. has a monster and was waiting to CR the river then check behind, if you are split between thinking A high could be good (opp has a busted draw) or you are badly beaten then check down also.

Don't consistently 3-bet with AJ, fold or call, re-raise only a late position raiser who could be on a likely steal.

[Zele]

Would you base an estimate of your overall win rate on 449 hands?

You might try looking at categories of hands rather than one hand in particular (e.g. all suited broadway cards barring AKs). Just make sure you decide upon the category before you look at the data.

[astroglide]

+.01BB/HD with AQs over ~450 deals sounds leaky to me. are you going to showdown over 60% with that? how are AKs and AJs? i wouldn't consider ATs for the sake of comparison.