pot odds and raising on the turn

[jat850]

The decision to bet out or raise is a decision that LOOKS FORWARD to the bets that should come in from that action. The decision to call LOOKS BACK at pot odds on whether to call or cold call. Looking forward after the turn card, you had too few players and too low a probability of drawing your winner to justify a raise. Conversely, the pot odds looking backwards were clearly present to make a call.

I recently capped a flop with just a good flush draw ( no board pairs either) because there were 5 other players coming along for the ride. My odds of drawing the nut flush was about 35%. My odds of winning would be slightly less than that. But for every $1 I put in the pot, $5 other dollars were going in as well. With about a 1/3 chance of winning, my flop raise made sense because i needed only 2 other players to call to have my raise be EV+.

I missed on the turn. Now my odds of drawing were about 20% and 2 people dropped out before the betting got to me. On the turn I did not raise because my odds of success had gone down AND I had lost future bets from the folders.

I hope this example makes the difference in the calculation between raising and calling easier for you.

If nothing else, this was an entertaining read.

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If nothing else, this was an entertaining read.

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You spiked it man. I laughed when I read the colorful and engaged storytelling and I laughed out loud (literally) when I read your comment. "Holy Macaroni, Big Stick!"

Blessed are the meak cause they shall inherit the earth.