Too Passive with AA on a 99x9x board - Page 2

chief444 · #11 02-10-2005, 12:10 PM

At some point you have to through the math out the door and realize that the case 9 becomes most likely. If he caps the turn then it's clearly more than a 5% chance...way more.

cockandbull · #12 02-10-2005, 12:12 PM

Ok, on to the good stuff. Raising villian show 97o and calling villian shows JJ. I'm sure that i missed one or two bets here and got lucky that he did infact have the 9.

Best,

Harry

Twitch1977 · #13 02-10-2005, 12:14 PM

I agree, but I don't think he'll have it often enough to make capping the turn and calling a reraise on the river, if not capping the river, unprofitable.

meep_42 · #14 02-10-2005, 12:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
At some point you have to through the math out the door and realize that the case 9 becomes most likely. If he caps the turn then it's clearly more than a 5% chance...way more.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was thinking.
Saying, "You win this hand more often than not because there is only 1 9 left in the deck" is irresponsible. What other hands would villain play like this, to this aggression from the Hero? 88? Sure, that's possible, but barring a read that this guy's a complete moron, i'm 3-betting the turn and calling the river.

-d

cockandbull · #15 02-10-2005, 12:25 PM

Hi Meep,

Your thinking is just how i feel i should have played this. How's things, have you moved up yet?

Harry

Twitch1977 · #16 02-10-2005, 12:27 PM

You're right, the range of hands he has is pretty narrow, but with the money contributed by the obviously beaten UTG+1 and UTG+2 on the flop and turn you need to win this hand only about half the time to show a profit.

I don't think there's any way UTG is going to turn over quads more then 50% of the time.

Even if it gets capped every street you're only contributing 12BB to the pot, even in this hand the final pot got up to 25BB and if it was played more aggressively it would have been significantly higher.

The amount you will win with this hand will outweigh the amount you lose significantly imo.

My 2 cents,
T

chief444 · #17 02-10-2005, 12:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's any way UTG is going to turn over quads more then 50% of the time.

Even if it gets capped every street you're only contributing 12BB to the pot, even in this hand the final pot got up to 25BB and if it was played more aggressively it would have been significantly higher.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just because your percentage of money put into the total final pot whether you call or raise the later streets is less than the percentage of times you feel you will win doesn't mean raising is correct. It just means folding is the worst option.

Twitch1977 · #18 02-10-2005, 12:38 PM

I guess what it comes down to is how often you feel you're going to lose to quads.

With the other people in the hand besides you and the 'Villan' contributing money, all I'm saying is you need to win probably just under 50% of the time to be profitable, the more you raise, the more money that gets contributed by two people in the hand that really have no chance giving you an even bigger cushion for when you lose.

The villan capping the flop and raising me on the turn isn't enough to convince me I'm losing to quads over 50% of the time.

T

meep_42 · #19 02-10-2005, 12:45 PM

The only thing I disagree with is that if you get capped on the turn, I think you're losing this 75% of the time.

-d

meep_42 · #20 02-10-2005, 12:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your thinking is just how i feel i should have played this. How's things, have you moved up yet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I moved up last weekend and have hit an unsustainable upswing over my first couple thou, despite my poor play. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

So, hopefully I don't piss it all away and don't have to step back down. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

-d