Whats the move here?

[MegaBet]

Will someone please run the numbers! I'll stake my reputation on this being -$EV to push.

[schwza]

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Happily push, knowing you are likely a huge favorite. By asserting yourself here, you stand a great chance to finish higher than a "maybe 3rd".

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, you get all the way up to "maybe 2nd." because even if you double up here, you're still at 1/4 the stack the bb has. i'd rather take a very high chance at 3rd and a low chance at 2nd+ than a good chance at 3rd, decent at 2nd, and ~40% of busting right now.

btw, sngpt will not be very useful here, as it doesn't know that the shorty is a-i next hand.

[schwza]

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You will be way ahead quite often.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'd say you'll be ahead with almost the exact probability that a random hand is not AK/22+.

[ QUOTE ]
I would give the SB credit for at least A-small, which puts you way ahead.

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i would be pushing any two immediately if i were SB. that's a super-auto-easy push.

[DMACM]

I asked the question so I just ran the numbers in SNGPT. Its a fold with SB pushing 100%. The limitations of ICM make this even more of a fold since shortie is BB next hand. I mistakenly called here but you are right Megabet its a fold without a doubt.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
I asked the question so I just ran the numbers in SNGPT. Its a fold with SB pushing 100%. The limitations of ICM make this even more of a fold since shortie is BB next hand. I mistakenly called here but you are right Megabet its a fold without a doubt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the confirmation! My reputation is intact for now! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Agreed, how could this not be a fold? Play to win is good, but I'll take third and making some money over fourth and losing money anyday of the week. How big a smile is on short-stacks face when he sees you move all in when he's forced blind next? When he realizes you put him from an almost guarnteed fourth to a possible money spot I'd say damn big.

[pooh74]

what is most interesting here is not perhaps the push-fold part of this hand...but the fact that next hand shorite in BB will have 25t more than BB...this makes Hero's job a little tougher...will CO and button comply and minraise? Or will they raise enough so that in order for hero to call, hero would be AI and BB could fold with 25 left. (I would hate this, bc BB will be heads up in that case, and very likely against any 2...)

On this hand, FWIW, I am only calling with maybe 4-5 hands here. I want a big edge, but I would fold even quicker if shortie had 150 or less bc I am all for cooperation on the next hand..

Would you call with AKo in the same situation? What your minimum calling hand be?

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you call with AKo in the same situation? What your minimum calling hand be?

[/ QUOTE ]

Without running the numbers...AA or KK.

[deathpotato]

The hand in question is certainly a fold, but folding QQ would be a huge mistake, and quite ridiculous. There is a massive difference between how AQ and QQ perform against large pushing ranges, which SB almost definitely has. If SB is good (and knows you are) you should call with 99.