$1k WPT sat hand

[MLG]

I was on the fence about calling, but then I looked at the structure. 20 min levels makes this structure super fast. Usually that would be an argument for calling, but I think it works the opposite way in this case. Everybody at the table is under 10k except for 2 players, as the blinds escalate they are going to be pushing in more and more desperate situations with less and less hand. I think even if you pick up a good hand later, even if its worse than 99, and you call an all-in (even if its for a larger percentage of your stack than this all-in is) your probably going to be in better shape against the range of all-in pushes than you are in this situation. I make you at about 55% here using a pretty large range (I used Aces through 7 and pairs through 55, KQ/KJ).

Also, you need about 12k more or so to have an average stack at 8 people. Winning 6k helps but doesnt get you to treading water territory by any means, while losing 6k here greatly dibilitates your ability to steal. Play small pots against the short stacks, gamble when they are even more desperate.

[youngin20]

nice post MLG. i like your analysis.

[Ulysses]

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as the blinds escalate they are going to be pushing in more and more desperate situations with less and less hand.

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I think this is a great point and this is why I edged towards thinking fold was better in this spot. In this round, I'm pushing in this spot w/ hands that are probably coinflip at best for 99. One more round, and I'm pushing here w/ hands that 99 fares much better against. So, very shortly, as you point out, this guy can take stands and be much more likely to have way the best of it.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

I'm going to disagree with everyone else.

I think this is a call. This is a live event, you're only going to see around 30 more hands before you have less then 10x the BB given how fast the structure moves and how slowly the players play. The avg stack when you get into the money will be 32k so a win here will put close enough you won't have to gamble like MP is doing. If you fold you are going to have to gamble shortly anyways and you will still have most of the table covered in case you get unlucky two twice.

Later,
MarkV.

[adanthar]

What do you mean by 'pretty bad'?

If you can steal your way into a 30K stack you shouldn't go anywhere near this pot, but if they're mostly calling stations I think you want this last flip.

[Ulysses]

I was MP. I pushed w/ KQ. SB called w/ 99 and it held up.

I think it was close. I lean towards folding, but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread.

[JaBlue]

I agree. It seems incredibly marginal either way.

[Blackjack]

haha great post.

I'll have to try the reverse post sometime.
His call sucked - but if he sucked, then the call was good for him.

Blackjack

[PrayingMantis]

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but I don't think it is nearly as clear as most of the posters in this thread.


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I am also quite amazed to see how easily people here say it's a fold. There are certainly good arguments for folding here, but in certain conditions (even if opponents are "bad", it really depends on what kind of "bad" are they), a call here - in what seems to be a clear +CEV sitution, and in order to become the chip leader in the table, which is extremely helpful in sats even more than in normal structure (due to the nature of the bubble in sats, and the great importance that people give to survival) - looks like a reasonable option. Sorry for this long and awkward sentence.

I'd say it is still far enough from the money, and stacks are relatively short, in order for this spot to be (at least) very close. It also very much depends on the ability of the caller to play big stack vs. his ability to play medium-big stack at such events, IMO.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
I am also quite amazed to see how easily people here say it's a fold. There are certainly good arguments for folding here, but in certain conditions (even if opponents are "bad", it really depends on what kind of "bad" are they), a call here - in what seems to be a clear +CEV sitution, and in order to become the chip leader in the table, which is extremely helpful in sats even more than in normal structure (due to the nature of the bubble in sats, and the great importance that people give to survival) - looks like a reasonable option. Sorry for this long and awkward sentence.

I'd say it is still far enough from the money, and stacks are relatively short, in order for this spot to be (at least) very close. It also very much depends on the ability of the caller to play big stack vs. his ability to play medium-big stack at such events, IMO.

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Interesting, but if he calls this and loses to lets say AQo in a race, would your response be the same if the guy pushed his new 12,000 stack and hero had JJ and calling would eliminate him, I think i would call with the 99 if i had 30k but probably not if i had 20k.

Mack