#11
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Re: extracting value?
[ QUOTE ]
I hate 75$ bet. I would pot it or check depends on the mood. Most ppl thinks small bet = trapping. [/ QUOTE ] I don't hate the $75 bet at all. If OP's read is good, that bet invites Villain to make a mistake in calling, offering ~8:1 implied. And Villain may think: a chance I'm good, and a chance I can spike if not. So he may well call. My default would be to pot it -- standard lead -- but I think this is poor here. You fold everyone but the weaker A and hands that beat you; the pairs won't play. It lets most hands play perfectly against you. You should make the play that invites the most mistakes, and here I think it's value bets all the way down. |
#12
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Re: extracting value?
How about a $50-$75 bet bet on the turn? It looks weird, villain gets better odds than he got calling the flop (he might even raise with the case A) and I think you have a better shot at getting your river bet called. If villiain doesn't have the case A then I doubt you are going to extract big $$$ here.
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#13
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Re: extracting value?
I probably go with a full on potsized bet.....I think KK or QQ might call that more often than they call an obvious value bet like $100 or $75. If he folds oh well, the pot is already nice. Nothing ventured nothing gained.
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#14
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Re: extracting value?
In hindsight, making another bet of $75-100 on the turn would probably be best, because as soon as I checked I realized there was still too much money left for him to call it all on the river. So, a queen came, he insta-pushed, and I donated my stack to him.
Looking back on it, he's calling $75 on the flop with around a 10% chance to win, and he'll win more than ten times that much if he hits. So I actually didn't even force him to make a mistake, assuming he wasn't going to call again on the river unimproved. So I managed to take a situation where I was a huge favorite in a $220 pot and turn it into an EV neutral situation. Absolutely terrible. |
#15
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Re: extracting value?
Soah,
I think it's going to be pretty tough for you to represent a flop bluff on this hand. You've got 4 way action in a preflop reraised pot. It seems pretty unlikely that everyone will doubt a big ace is looming out there and be willing to play back at you after a typical 2/3-full pot bet into 3 players. Because of this, I think the weak "feeler-becaues-i've-got-99-bet" line is going to get max value here, most often when someone tries to pounce on your weakness representing the ace themself. Also, you're probably checking a lot of pots in position anyway, so I think you should go ahead and do that here too. The river becomes interesting after checking the turn. If villain checks again (which a TAG probably wouldn't do with an ace himself) you can try a big river overbet where you have the best chance of representing a bluff against one player. A smart TAG might have an easier time getting away from a river 1/2 pot value bet than a huge bet, especially if he's the type to make a big call with QQ or JJ here. If villain block/value bets, you can push/call depending on what falls on the river. In summary, unless TAG Villain thinks your FOS, or has AQ, I think it's going to be tough for you to get his stack. That said, I think the above line will get ya the most. KoW Edit: Just read that the hand was messed up and it was really the unknown BB who called. Even still I think most of this applies to an unknown on party. i haven't played on stars though. |
#16
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Re: extracting value?
i'd bet the flop for 1/2 pot, same on turn, and donate just like you did on the river.
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#17
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Re: extracting value?
[ QUOTE ]
So I managed to take a situation where I was a huge favorite in a $220 pot and turn it into an EV neutral situation. Absolutely terrible. [/ QUOTE ] This assumes he never puts another penny in after the flop bet unless he hits a queen. You can't make that assumption. It also assumes he knows you'll pay off a push on the river. If he 1/2 pot value bets the river Q I doubt you're pushing as it's the worst card in the deck...I don't think it's terrible. KoW |
#18
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Re: extracting value?
[ QUOTE ]
In hindsight, making another bet of $75-100 on the turn would probably be best, because as soon as I checked I realized there was still too much money left for him to call it all on the river. So, a queen came, he insta-pushed, and I donated my stack to him. Looking back on it, he's calling $75 on the flop with around a 10% chance to win, and he'll win more than ten times that much if he hits. So I actually didn't even force him to make a mistake, assuming he wasn't going to call again on the river unimproved. So I managed to take a situation where I was a huge favorite in a $220 pot and turn it into an EV neutral situation. Absolutely terrible. [/ QUOTE ] Uh, assuming effective stacks are near 400, he can only win 550 by calling this flop bet. So not really good enough odds for him to call, but somewhat close. |
#19
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Re: extracting value?
[ QUOTE ]
i'd bet the flop for 1/2 pot, same on turn, and donate just like you did on the river. [/ QUOTE ] I like the half pot bet on the flop, and then pushing the turn. |
#20
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Re: extracting value?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i'd bet the flop for 1/2 pot, same on turn, and donate just like you did on the river. [/ QUOTE ] I like the half pot bet on the flop, and then pushing the turn. [/ QUOTE ] actually, yeah i like this better.. forgot the pot is getting mighty large. |
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