QQ UTG vs. good players

[Hoopster81]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I want a cheap showdown. I think I call here with plans to call down decent bets (bets I would have made anyway).

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call this, pot and villain's stack will be ~$80. I would bet the rest is going in on the turn. Not saying a fold is correct, but these almost never end in a cheap showdown.

[theweatherman]

I'd say call and reevaluate the turn. You cant raise here without committing yourself. Villian was given 3-1 pf and so could be holding almost any two, including a crap 2pair set wheel, or (if your lucky) mid/high pp.

The more i think about it themore i like a call. if the turn is scary its an easy fold, if the turn is a blank (by that i mean somthing like an offsuit 9) then you are in the same sitaution of wa/wb but you are able to give worse odds when WA

[wdeadwyler]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say call and reevaluate the turn. You cant raise here without committing yourself. Villian was given 3-1 pf and so could be holding almost any two, including a crap 2pair set wheel, or (if your lucky) mid/high pp.

The more i think about it themore i like a call. if the turn is scary its an easy fold, if the turn is a blank (by that i mean somthing like an offsuit 9) then you are in the same sitaution of wa/wb but you are able to give worse odds when WA

[/ QUOTE ]

This situation sucks in general. Raising to 75 here doesnt commit you, but it sure is a waste of money IMO. Calling is ok, but I think you have to fold the turn if he bets again. I hate the flop raise here, and I feel strongly that this hand is NOT WA/WB, as villain could easily have something like 56s, 55, 66, etc, or be taking a stab with air (with or without an ace in his hand). This is a REALLY tough spot, and Im gonna go with call, fold to turn bet.

Can we get some regulars to post about this one?

PS: This belonds in Mid Stakes and I would like to hear their thoughts, as the someone can lead here with a large range of hands and put is in a really hard place. I would not be surprised if some of the Mid Stakes regulars advocated folding this flop.

[bizaff]

Ugh. I think I fold and feel icky.

If you had any other read on BB and MP2, I'd probably stick around. If you raise, you'll probably only get called by hands that beat you. If you call, MP2's raise (and BB's bet) is hard to read (Ax? 33? JJ? 67s?) and not too many turn cards make you happy (A267 = straight, 345 = trips, 8-J = set, AK = overpair). If your image is tight and the two good players know this (which they probably will), they'll know all of this, and probably put you on a big pair raising UTG.

Blah. I know this seems awfully weak, but you've only invested $7 and there's way too much unknown.

[wdeadwyler]

IMO this is the most interesting hand of the day and it is getting zero replies. Come on guys, chime in, its ok to be wrong, thats how we learn.

[DoomSlice]

This is a tough spot!

The truth is that BB can have a pretty wide range of hands here, since he is closing the action preflop and getting a good price to do so, so you can't automatically put him on a set.

Several hands that might make this bet that you beat are: 65, A5, A4, A3, 66

Several hands that have you beat are: A2,67, 55, 44, 33 45s, 34s

So it's time to narrow that hand range down a bit. The BB will have an excellent chance to checkraise and trap MP2 in if he slowplays the straight, so those two combinations are slightly less probable.

Sets are a possibility, but once again I think most players like to check-raise here with those.

So that leaves the slightly more vulnerable two pair hands that would lead out like that, along with the pair+draw hands.

You've got a decent chance of catching up with two pair (25%) but you're not ahead THAT much of the pair+draw hands or OESD (66). With that in mind, I like to peel one off here and then put him all in on the turn as long as a scare card doesn't hit. If one does hit, I have no problem with folding, and if MP2 or SB happen to come along for the ride, I also have no problem folding to further aggression.

Edit: Also include in the hand range mid PPs like 88-JJ, all of which make a call here even more attractive.

[bizaff]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a tough spot!

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

[ QUOTE ]
The truth is that BB can have a pretty wide range of hands here, since he is closing the action preflop and getting a good price to do so, so you can't automatically put him on a set.

Several hands that might make this bet that you beat are: 65, A5, A4, A3, 66

Several hands that have you beat are: A2,67, 55, 44, 33 45s, 34s

So it's time to narrow that hand range down a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]
To me, this is the hard part.

[ QUOTE ]
The BB will have an excellent chance to checkraise and trap MP2 in if he slowplays the straight, so those two combinations are slightly less probable.

Sets are a possibility, but once again I think most players like to check-raise here with those.

[/ QUOTE ]
Even with 3 straight cards? I wouldn't want to give a free card to any hand containing a 6 or 2, which is fairly likely given the number of people in the pot - A6, A2, 66, 22.

[ QUOTE ]
So that leaves the slightly more vulnerable two pair hands that would lead out like that, along with the pair+draw hands.

You've got a decent chance of catching up with two pair (25%) but you're not ahead THAT much of the pair+draw hands or OESD (66). With that in mind, I like to peel one off here and then put him all in on the turn as long as a scare card doesn't hit. If one does hit, I have no problem with folding, and if MP2 or SB happen to come along for the ride, I also have no problem folding to further aggression.

Edit: Also include in the hand range mid PPs like 88-JJ, all of which make a call here even more attractive.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you include these in his range, how do you know which cards are scary?

All of this thinking makes me a little wary of QQ here facing a pot sized bet. On top of that, there's a good player that has me covered left to act after me. That spells disaster to me.

We're facing two good opponents. When we're ahead, we're a little ahead. When we're behind, we're crushed. When we're ahead, we're not going to make much here. When we're behind, we're losing our stack.

Am I way off base here?

[DoomSlice]

You're certainly not way off base here, this is probably one of these hands where it doesn't hurt to fold and be wrong... but with BBs moderately small stack size, it doesn't hurt as much to call and be wrong either, especially when there's a non-trivial chance that you're ahead.

[bizaff]

Against just BB, I think you're probably right, but with a good player that covers us yet to act, this is significantly more difficult.

I don't think anyone is really addressing the fact that this pot is NOT heads-up - there's still 3 other people in: one bad tiny stack, one good small stack, and one good deep stack yet to act.

[DoomSlice]

I think if anything, the other 2 guys will be subsidizing you.