Do I peel a card?

shouldnt we be discounting our bdds due to the paired board? are we really going to try and draw to runner runner inside straight draw or flush when we are potentially drawing dead?

our ace outs are virtually worthless here as well

What T do you put button on... I think our ace is good 50% of the time here.

button isnt the only player in the hand......

[shant]

When you sober up I'd like to hear the math on that one. I'm doing it myself but I suck at math and it still seems really close.

[Shillx]

Shant,

I was kinda joking when I made the 1st post. I was pretty indifferent on the flop peel to tell you the truth. Oh well it will be interesting to do some math on it as I'm drinking again and don't have anything better to do. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Assume that we have zero implied odds and also assume that the 3rd player folds. An ace is worth 25% the pot should it fall on 4th street and that the villians range is TT+/AT+. A turned 9 is worth 1/3 of the pot and attach a 1 BB negative implied odds deduction to both of these. There are really too many unknowns here, but let's see what happens. This is pretty much a worst case scenario.

Keep in mind that a turned straight draw is any 8 or 7. A queen does no good since we will oftentimes be drawing thin or dead.

Turn fold (p = .56) -- EV = - .28 BB

Turned flush redraw (p = .19) -- EV = 7.75BB*.24 - 1BB = .86 BB

Turned straight redraw (p = .13) -- EV = 7.75BB*.17 - 1BB = .32 BB

Turned ace (p = .06) -- EV = 8.75*.25 - 2BB = .19BB

Turned nine (p = .06) -- EV = 8.75*.33 - 2BB = .89BB

Total:

EV = .06*.19 + .06*.89 + .13*.32 + .19*.86 - .28 = - .01 BB

This is real rough, but it should be enough to make a call worth it here. There is also a 3rd player that we would like to come along as well. If he calls we will be in better shape, but we will be worse off should he check/raise. You also have to consider the following...

1) He might not bet the turn. This is a huge factor.
2) We almost certainly have some kind of implied odds should we make a straight or flush.
3) His range could include hands like KQ that we beat and 88 that we have good equity against.

It says a lot when you say "it is close" just by looking at it and then take the time to find out exactly how close it is. Says something for the great players who say they don't incorperate math into their game. I vote call FWIW. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]