Hand vs. Joe Cassidy

[Ezcheeze]

If you are really concerned with this the question is how often to raise and call with 98o when Joe Cassidy openlimps in the SB, and what has he seen you check or raise the BB with in the past. In this case this was the first chance I had and I preffered to give him a chacne to see me check with a mediocre hand so that future raises would be viewed as more likely to be strong hands. I also see no immediate value to raising 89o vs. a great player who open limps in the small blind.

[golferbrent]

Personally, I think the play on the turn is to 3 bet and follow through on the end. I think he is making a play here with a hand like Q-7. That is definitely a hand that he could limp c/r with and then c/r turn with. Figuring that he can get more bets in with his draw and maybe force you to lay down a hand he can't beat, but with outs to improve.

The thing is, you have to 3 bet at the normal pace that you have been playing at... you can't sit and think awhile and you can't auto-3 bet either as this looks like a move as well. That would be my play... and hopefully if you miss he has to lay down his Q high on the end. Hope things turned out fine!

[Ezcheeze]

Let's not make the mistake of putting him on one hand and playing according to that. Clearly, out of his whole range of hands Qxo isn't going to be particularly likely by itself.

The question in my mind is how often is he going to have a hand in this spot that he's willing to fold to a 3-bet, or some other line that shows strength.


I'm getting 3 to 1 odds on a turn reraise and if it fails I still most likely have a chance to draw out if called. Is that enough?

[flawless_victory]

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you cant even beat Qhigh if thats what he has

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Is this relevant?


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of course. if you could beat Qhigh, then you could call down and very possibly win (bye beating Qhigh in a showdown) getting effective odds of 7:2, if you have to bluff raise (threebet turn,betriver or call,raise river.) you are getting 7:3.

[Ezcheeze]

So I guess your original statement was meant to indicate that I couldn't feasibly call down and win here. It's such an obvious statement it through me off a bit.

Yes, 7:3 if he calls the turn (though I'm not quite sure I'm still betting the river if he calls the turn).
I'm also getting 3:1 on a str8 turn bluff.

[flawless_victory]

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(though I'm not quite sure I'm still betting the river if he calls the turn).


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well i doubt hes folding a pair here, so i dont see how you could check down the river and risk letting him win a showdown with a busted straight draw... i dont know this guy, but i did read danny n's article in cardplayer where he wrote about the hand where he bluffed the turn/river with a Qhigh straight draw... joe called with a worse Qhigh.
if you had a small pair or A high, youd be getting a better price as you wouldnt have to fire the river. with 9high you must invest three bets, IMO.

[Steve Giufre]

I cant think of one hand he would check raise the flop with and then check fold to a river bet. I think if he were trying to straight rob you he would be more likely to just lead out in a pot this small. I think the flop bet is good, but check behind the turn.

Also its gonna get really expensive to try and push this hand since you need to bet the river as well if you do fire on the turn in case he has Qx. But that seems like a really strange line for him to take if he has queen high. Im not sure he has enough reason to believe you are going to fire again, not sure why he wouldnt just lead the turn. Anyhow considering you did bet the turn, Im calling but I think its close.

[golferbrent]

I believe that getting 3-1 here is enough to make this play. If you factor in both the potential of fold equity on the turn as well as fold equity on the end if he had a hand such as Q-x. My analysis is that there is a wide range of hands he could hold here...

Some of them have fold potential with a turn reraise and follow through some of his holding are not going to fold, but if you improve then things are even better, because now he pays you off. In combination with the holdings that he folds and the holdings that don't fold but you improve against I think you can justify a turn reraise here.

His ability to mix up his style is one of his skills for certain as they are of all great players, but I struggle to see the types of hands that he would play in such an extreme manner. It seems like a really offbeat line he is taking.

I think the most significant factor here is his propensity to slow play a big hand here in a blind struggle. Since, you have no knowledge of the hands he has played with you before, but having the knowledge of his past actions against you...

ie. you calling everyone of his raises heads up and then folding to his bet on flop... I believe it decreases the likely hood of him having slowplayed preflop against you... b/c you have already shown a propensity to call his preflop raises. Therefore, I believe he is making a move here with a semibluff... the most likely semibluff being a Q-x hand.

[Ezcheeze]

His turn check-raise certainly looks strong. But, it also looks kinda goofy. In the end, with all the wierdness of his play and my image at the time (I hadn't shown anything near a bluff and hadn't been very aggressive postflop overall, with me basically folding most hands) I decided to 3-bet.

He 4-bets. Ok, great, he actually has a hand (or a perfect read on me heh). I call looking to hit a straight and the river is an A. He checks?!? Alright, can he see my cards?? Is he going for the all powerful triple-check raise? Was it all an elaborate move that he's finally given up on? Is it possible he has some sort of made hand hes now willing to fold?
What do you think? Fire one last seemingly hopeless shot, or give up and see what I dumped all that money to?

[PTjvs]

Please rename this thread "How I got trifectad by Joe Cassidy"

jvs