Marginal holdings

[Buzz]

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Since your hand is roughly average, you will not do better or worse from a card perspective waiting.

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Greg - Well... you're as likely to do worse as better if you will be forced all-in on the very next hand, but if there are several hands before you have to go all in, you have several chances to get better cards. And in the meanwhile, you might move up a place or two in the standings.

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But from a stack perspective, you will do much better playing now, as a win will leave you with a bunch more chips then winning the next hand will.

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You’d like to have more opponents than just the big blind for your move to get as much leverage for your chips as possible. In other words you'd rather get two for one than one for one. The trouble with this is if you have more opponents, especially on the bubble in a tournament, they’re not likely to have random hands. Instead they’ll probably have better starting hands than KK69d is.

KK69d has a better chance of success raising against a wimpy blind who is holding random cards than coming in when other opponents with better starting hands have voluntarily entered the action.

If I run a simulation against two opponents, for example, I think I should at least give one of them an ace. I can either make it in the same suit as one of hero’s kings or not. Let's try it both ways. Here are the results:

hand...high...low...scoop...total
WXYZ....570...784...1519....2873
AXYZ....479..1249...2296....4025
KK69d..1032.....0...2070....3102
W, X, Y, and Z are random cards.
The A in AXYZ is in one of Hero's suits.

hand...high...low...scoop...total
WXYZ....513...873...1279....2665
AXYZ....530..1228...2286....4044
KK69d..1116.....0...2175....3291
W, X, Y, and Z are random cards.
The A in AXYZ is not in one of Hero's suits.

Not much difference. (Hero’s chances obviously are not quite as good if we give one of his two opponents the ace in one of Hero’s suits). In either event, Hero's chances drop to about one in three from the one in two chance Hero would have one-on-one.

Hero triples his stack size by beating two opponents, while he only doubles his stack size by beating one opponent - but his chances of winning are roughly cut from slightly better than one chance in two to slightly less than one chance in three. Put another way, Hero is roughly twice as likely to get knocked out against two opponents as against only one.

And it isn’t as though tripling his stack size would put Hero in much better shape than doubling it. Either way, with the continually escalating blinds, he’s going to be forced all-in again, and soon.

But the main reason I wouldn't voluntarily go all-in with KK96d is I think it's the wrong hand with which to make a move when you’re short stacked and on the bubble in a tournament.

Just my humble opinion.

Buzz

[chaos]

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1) Three wheel cards not including an Ace.

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I will only play 234x when the fourth card complements the hand. For me the fourth card has to be a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or a suited K. I only want to play this hand for a single bet. This hand needs to flop an Ace. Many callers or raisers usually indicate that some of the Aces are already out in other players' hands. So I will only play these hands from late position or the blinds.

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2) A3xx n

Is any A3 worth a call, or do you need things to go with it?

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I need things to go with it. Some things that make it playable are having a suited Ace, having a 4 (or to a lesser extent a 5) for counterfeit protection, having another Ace, having two big cards (Tens or greater), having a very big pair like Kings or Queens. I want to play the weaker hands (A35x) for only a single bet, so I will only play them in late position or the blinds.

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3) Two suited Aces or Kings.

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I will generally always play two suited Aces. Two suited Kings is a step down. You have to be careful about playing in raised pots with the Kings because the raiser may have a suited Aced in your suit which could be big trouble. I would prefer both of these types of hands not to contain 7s, 8s, or 9s which are the weakest cards.

A good thing to always keep in mind is that the object of any high-low game is to scoop the pot. So you only want to play hands that have the potential to scoop the pot.

[GooperMC]

XxPenguinxX everyone has already given you good advice about the specific hands that you mentioned so I will give you more general advice: If you are a good player you only make marginal money on marginal hands. If you are a bad player you are going to lose money on marginal hands.

I am not saying that you aren’t a good player or that you aren’t going to turn into a good player but most beginners are not very good at O8 (I know I wasn’t).

I would suggest playing only the premium hands for the first 5K hands or so. Those hands are going to be your bread any butter anyway so you should still be making money but it will give you time to figure out how to play the other marginal hands.

Playing the premium hands in O8 is pretty easy but playing the marginal hands can be very difficult. Waiting before perusing the marginal hands will give your game the maturity to be able to play them well so you make money off of them.

[gergery]

Personally, I think your chances of reducing competition are much better if you push now, as your opponents will then 1) know your hand is decent (otherwise you’d wait 1 more hand), 2) must call a raise (whereas next hand they only must call 1 bet). It is also possible albeit very unlikely that everyone could fold to your raise. And you do not want competition.

And the end result would be quite different too. Let’s say you win the hand and 2 opponents had come in. If you’d have pushed then you’ll have roughly double the number of chips depending on what assumptions you want to make. That increases your chances a high placing and thus your tournament equity by a huge margin, and likely increases your chances of slipping into the money too or at worse does not decrease them much at all.

FWIW, this is not an O8 question at all; it’s an MTT question – “You should play with your best x% of hands UTG very shortstacked on the bubble in a limit poker tourney”. Ask this in the MTT forum and I’ll be shocked if the good players say x is less than 50%

And I agree with Buzz and chaos on the A3 hands.

-greg
www.o8poker.com

[Buzz]

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Personally, I think your chances of reducing competition are much better if you push now, as your opponents will then 1) know your hand is decent (otherwise you’d wait 1 more hand), 2) must call a raise (whereas next hand they only must call 1 bet). It is also possible albeit very unlikely that everyone could fold to your raise. And you do not want competition.

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Hi Greg - I agree 100%.

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And the end result would be quite different too. Let’s say you win the hand and 2 opponents had come in. If you’d have pushed then you’ll have roughly double the number of chips depending on what assumptions you want to make.

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Well... no. Assuming you scoop:
Your stack + one opponents stack = two stacks.
Your stack + two opponents stacks = three stacks.
You win twice as many chips against two opponents as one, but only you end up with 3/2 as large a stack as you'd end up with scooping against one opponent.

Obviously, the more chips you win, the better - but you have an increased chance of losing against two opponents.

Because of the split nature of the game, you have a better chance of <font color="white">_</font>surviving with some types of hands than others.

This is not a hand of the type that has a better chance of surviving. And for two main reasons, I think.

(1) This is the kind of hand that wins more than its share when nine opponents see the flop, just about its share when one oppoennt sse the flop, and less than its fair share when two opponents enter the pot (and when we reasonably assume at least one of them has an ace or wouldn't be voluntarily playing at this stage of a tournament).

(2) This hand can only scoop when no low is possible! If you go all-in with this hand against one opponent, when you do win, for the most part you'll only get your own chips back!

And when you hold KK96d, the chance of low is enhanced from the average of about 60% to about 65% (because there's a higher proportion of low cards in the missing cards). That's pretty close to two thirds. Thus you should figure you'll be fighting for only half the pot almost two times out of three!

There are much, much safer hands to play when you'll likely be risking your whole stack in short handed play. For example, any ace-five-X-Y hand is safer.

Yes, you want to win the tournament. But you also don't want to needlessly place eleventh in a ten player pay-off structure.

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That increases your chances a high placing and thus your tournament equity by a huge margin, and likely increases your chances of slipping into the money too or at worse does not decrease them much at all.

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Huh?? Wait one more hand and not only might you get dealt a better starting hand for short handed play than this one, but somebody else could get blown away while you're waiting! You <font color="white">_</font>obviously increase your chance of slipping into the money by waiting! That's why tournament play gets very tight on the bubble.

For anyone who doesn't understand, you're "on the bubble" when you're at the point in a tournament where everybody but one participant will make it into the money. Used more loosely by someone seeking solace ("I was on the bubble."), the term may mean the individual was just a few places away from making it into the money. (This is a time when blind stealing is more possible than usual. However, in my humble opinion, you should use discretion and choose your target well for a blind steal attempt).

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FWIW, this is not an O8 question at all; it’s an MTT question – “You should play with your best x% of hands UTG very shortstacked on the bubble in a limit poker tourney”. Ask this in the MTT forum and I’ll be shocked if the good players say x is less than 50%

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I don't know what "FWIW" means.

But wow, I just now realized that you've been talking about UTG while I thought the question was about UTG+1. You're thinking in terms of Hero going all-in either this hand or the next while I'm thinking in terms of Hero going all-in on one of the next three hands.

Now your reasoning makes more sense to me. (I guess I'll leave what I wrote above anyhow).

Playing any hand that is better than 50% when UTG, very shortstacked, and on the bubble in a limit poker tourney seems very reasonable for a Texas hold 'em tourney.

If you'll play any hand that is better than 50% when you have only one hand left after the current one, doesn't it make more sense to play any hand that is better than 67% when you have two hands left after the current one? Are we assuming you'll be one-on-one? Gee, there aren't that many Omaha-8 hands that are better than 67%. I don't know... haven't really thought about it.

At any rate, getting back to the 50% rule for UTG dire circumstances Omaha-8 tournament hands, I'm not sure I would quite agree with taking a chance on any 50% hand, because of the high/low nature of the game.

It's not unusual to see someone risk his/her stack in a one-on-one confrontation, and then basically gain nothing for having taken the risk. Then to have to risk your stack again on the very next hand.... I don't know. Seems to me the more times you risk your stack, the less are your chances of making it into the money.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

Chaos - Very fine post, in my humble opinion. Just a couple of things....

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I will only play 234x when the fourth card complements the hand. For me the fourth card has to be a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or a suited K.

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That’s very tight. Too tight for anyone but a beginner, I’d say. But maybe not bad advice for a beginner.

There’s a range of hands here, but the starting strength of the best hand of the group only about 33% better than the worst hand of the group

The worst hand of the group is 2348-non-suited.

The best hand of the group in my full game simulations was 2234-double-suited. I would have thought 2345-double-suited was the best hand of the group, and it was close but, well... below are the best 234X hands with my numbers. Everybody has to realize that if I ran these again, I’d get slightly different numbers. It’s like flipping a coin ten thousand times; you’re going to get roughly five thousand heads and five thousand tails, but usually not exactly. Maybe it’ll be 5231 heads one time and 4786 heads the next. I could run the sims a hundred thousand times, and that would give better accuracy, but I figure ten thousand times will give a result that is close enough for my purposes. I could also run them ten handed, but mostly I play at nine handed tables. I ran the hands posted below against eight non-folding opponents (Painless Potters). Doing that gives me a familiar way to compare different starting hands to each other. If I give the board one ace and run the sims for the aceless hands shown below, they simulate approximately as well as A234d with a five random card board.

Here are the best hands in the 234X group
10,000 run simulation results 9 handed no fold ‘em Omaha-8
hand.....high......low...scoop....total
2234d.....198.....1121.....488.....1807
2334d.....198.....1140.....467.....1802
2344d.....215.....1091.....471.....1777
234Kd.....254......978.....538.....1770
d means double suited.

Here are the worst hands in the 234X group
10,000 run simulation results 9 handed no fold ‘em Omaha-8
hand.....high......low...scoop....total
2346n.....189.....1044.....265.....1498
2347n.....166.....1002.....282.....1450
2348n.....151......972.....222.....1345
2349n.....124.....1038.....283.....1445
234Tn.....132.....1054.....259.....1445
234Jn.....123.....1061.....291.....1475
n means non-suited

Since an average hand would have a total of 1111, you can see all these hands are above average. And they're all fairly easy to play.

For comparison. below are the numbers for some premium hands:
10,000 run simulation results 9 handed no fold ‘em Omaha-8
hand.....high......low...scoop....total
AA23d.....362.....1530....1291.....3183
AA24d.....405.....1364....1279.....3048
AA34d.....424.....1189....1290.....2903
AA25d.....441.....1225....1198.....2864
AA22d.....516.....1164....1131.....2811
AA2Qd.....595.....1056....1012.....2663
A234d.....198.....1810.....779.....2787
A23Kd.....317.....1552.....913.....2782
d means double suited

Hopefully that will put 234X hands in perspective for you.

Well... you must also be curious about A234n. Here it is.
10,000 run simulation result, 9 handed no fold ‘em Omaha-8
hand.....high......low...scoop....total
A234n.....127.....1918.....351.....2396

Again, let me emphasize these are simulated (experimental) results. If I ran them all again, I’d expect slight variations.

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I only want to play this hand for a single bet.

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At least for the worst hands of the 234X group, me too.

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This hand needs to flop an Ace.

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Yes. For the most part. Certainly pretty much true for the worst hands of the group. And that makes these hands generally easy to play. But you do need self-discipline after the flop.

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Many callers or raisers usually indicate that some of the Aces are already out in other players' hands.

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You have to figure that some of the aces are usually going to be already out in other players’ hands anyway. If you have eight opponents, they have 32 cards between them and some of those 32 cards will probably be aces, especially if you don’t have one.

But many callers doesn’t necessarily indicate you have less of a chance of catching an ace on the flop than usual. However, more callers than usual in a fairly tight group of players usually does indicate you have less of a chance of catching an ace on the flop than usual.

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So I will only play these hands from late position or the blinds.

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That’s certainly a very good idea for some of them.

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3) Two suited Aces or Kings.
You have to be careful about playing in raised pots with the Kings because the raiser may have a suited Aced in your suit which could be big trouble. I would prefer both of these types of hands not to contain 7s, 8s, or 9s which are the weakest cards.

A good thing to always keep in mind is that the object of any high-low game is to scoop the pot. So you only want to play hands that have the potential to scoop the pot.

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Very good points. Well expressed.

Buzz

[Buzz]

Goop - Good post! Just a couple of points...

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If you are a good player you only make marginal money on marginal hands.

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Many marginal starting hands are only marginal before the flop. After the flop, if you have a nice flop fit, what was a marginal hand can become a very profitable hand if played correctly.

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If you are a bad player you are going to lose money on marginal hands.

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Over the long haul, that's certainly true.

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I would suggest playing only the premium hands for the first 5K hands or so.

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Excellent advice, in my humble opinion.

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Playing the premium hands in O8 is pretty easy but playing the marginal hands can be very difficult.

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Depends. Generally true, I think. Sometimes truer than other times.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[GooperMC]

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Many marginal starting hands are only marginal before the flop. After the flop, if you have a nice flop fit, what was a marginal hand can become a very profitable hand if played correctly.


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I totally agree. The trick is knowing when they contact with the flop well enough to continue. Sometimes these marginal hands look like they have a nice flop fit but they actually don’t and it takes experience to know when that is happening. I hope that Webster doesn’t mine me using him as an example (I am too lazy to drag up a good example from the many times that I have done this) but this thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...o=&amp;fpart=1

is a perfect example of a flop that looks good for your hand but really isn’t. A2 and A23 would be very easy to play in this pot but 2357 is going to be very difficult.

In my mind the marginal hands are more situational then the primary hands. I will play A2 suited in every position, in every situation, against every player. However a hand like A5 suited I will only play in certain situations. I think that experience is what tells you when you can play then profitable before AND after the flop.

Yes a good player is missing out on a little profitability by not playing the hands, esp. at higher levels where everyone will notice that you are nut peddling but at the .5/1 tables I don’t think that you are missing out on much and as a beginner I think you may actually be saving money.

[Buzz]

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...o=&amp;fpart=1

is a perfect example of a flop that looks good for your hand but really isn’t. A2 and A23 would be very easy to play in this pot but 2357 is going to be very difficult.

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Goop - That post is difficult for me to follow. I tried it once before and couldn't figure it out. And I tried it again just now and still couldn't figure it out.

I guess Hero is Bad Dog 007, holds
2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], decides to see the flop along with six opponents, flops
3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and raises on the second betting round. Then I get lost after that. (I do see there's a pair of jacks on the turn and river).

I don't know what VPIP means and I don't know as it would matter if I did. (I'd guess it has to do with the percentatge of hands the poster sees the flop with). I'm not sure what the poster is asking.

2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is a hand I would categorize as "marginal." I might see the flop with it, primarily looking for an ace on the flop. But instead of an ace, the flop brings trip threes and a draw to the third nut low.

The poster evidently thinks his straight draw is worth something at this point. (I would largely discount it). The case three makes quads for a winner and possible scooper. An ace makes a wheel, but someone else could make a wheel with an ace too. A deuce, five, or seven makes a boat, but not a very good one. What a mess!!

Anyway, Hero likes it and raises - and then catches two bricks, ending up with a hand that loses to anyone with a jack or a full house.

So I see the scenario as starting with a marginal hand in a loose/passive-pre-flop field, catching a very messy, marginal hand/flop fit and then getting screwed on the turn and river. Happens to me sometimes too.

Would I see the flop with the hand? - Maybe.

Would I continue after the flop if I did see the flop? - Yes, probably.

Would I raise after the flop? No.

Would I continue after the turn? I don't know. I guess I'd have to be there, wearing Hero's shoes, to decide.

Would I continue after the river? I don't know. I guess I'd have to be there, wearing Hero's shoes, to decide.

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is a perfect example of a flop that looks good for your hand but really isn’t.

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You think it looks good? It looks like a mess to me! With all these players, I'd probably call a single bet to see the turn, but it would be with strong misgivings. I'd be very wary here.

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A2 and A23 would be very easy to play in this pot

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Of course. Gee whiz Goop, I'd rather be dealt a premium starting hand than a marginal one - but you don't get dealt many premium hands. Maybe if you're going to play four on-line games at the same time and beat up on all the beginners who are trying to have some fun and learn the game you can make playing only premium hands work for you - but I don't think those tactics are optimal, and playing a live game like that soon becomes dreadfully boring for most recreational players. I've done it. I can do it. But it's simply not an enjoyable way for me to play the game.

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but 2357 is going to be very difficult

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Agreed. After this particular flop, 2357 is going to be very difficult to play. But how about if the flop is
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]? After a nice flop, the marginal starting hand has turned into a very strong post-flop hand.

And let's take your A2 hand. Can we first give it two other cards? How about we make it
A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? and how about if we make the flop
2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? And can we give you two bricks on the turn and river? Now what was a nice starting hand becomes the marginal nightmare.

Sure, I'd rather be deals A25Ts whan 2357s. A25Ts has a better chance of connecting with the flop and ending up a winner than 2357s. But after the flop either hand can become powerful or can become the start of a nightmare. Even a nice starting hand can become marginal after the flop.

I'm not recommending beginners play marginal starting hands, or even that anyone play marginal starting hands. But they're not necessarily marginal after the flop.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[chaos]

Buzz,

Thanks for running the 234x sims. You have convinced me that I may be throwing away a few profitable hands.

One point:
It is true that the best 234x hand has a total that is only about 33% better than the worst 234x hand. But the best 234x hands for scooping are almost twice as likely to scoop as the worst hands. So while you win only 33% more pots with the best hands, the fact that so many more are scoopers should show a much greater profit for the better 234x hands.