A8s.....river play?

[ QUOTE ]
Are you replying to me, or the OP? Because you and I are saying the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the OP because I don't read other posts before I respond. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Schwartzy61]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you replying to me, or the OP? Because you and I are saying the same thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess the OP because I don't read other posts before I respond. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Too bad he wasn't referring to your post...

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
The OP, yours was the last pot on the page when I hit reply so that's who it replied too. My bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
No worries. And now I've derailed the thread. Go me! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
If CO has a 5, he is calling/reraising. If button has ANYTHING, he is also calling.

Raise every single time. Calling here is a passive crime.

[/ QUOTE ]

If CO has a 5, he would be making a horrible mistake in 3-betting if you raise. He would have raised if you just called (allowing you to 3-bet of course), but he'll usually just call if you raise.

I think you meant "BB" when you said "button," and if so BB might very well be able to fold an overpair if you raise and get overcalled or 3-bet.

I don't think raising is bad, but if the remaining villains are the tricky kind who would be slowplaying a made straight, you can probably get more bets by calling with the intention of reraising.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
Raises...

I like a raise here, if anyone has a 5 they will call and might even re-raise you, flush is pretty well hidden by the fact that you hit it runner runner. There's no guarantee someone behind you will raise to get maximum value for your flush and really going for overcalls may net you an extra BB but could also cost you a BB...

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think raising is bad, but if the remaining villains are the tricky kind who would be slowplaying a made straight, you can probably get more bets by calling with the intention of reraising.

[/ QUOTE ]
True, but OP said BB and CO are unknown, and Button looks farily passive.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the thing. If they have crap and fold behind, you've missed 1 BB. Obviously we don't want to go around dropping BBs for no reason, but this hand presents a pretty good risk-reward ratio IMO.

With two guys left in the hand, it's reasonably likely that at least one was on a draw (either the straight or a smaller flush). If one of the villains made a smaller flush you and he are capping no matter what you do, but you stand a much better chance of milking BB by call-reraising instead of making BB call two cold. Likewise, if CO (say) has the straight, you'll often get an extra bet out of both BB and CO by getting fancy relative to the straightforward raise.

This particular board has a lot of completed draws, so I think the odds favor the fancy play. Take away the 4-straight board and I'd be more inclined to raise and take my extra bet from BB.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
That means both players have to fold when they would have both called for your raise to be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, no. It all depends on what percentage of the time button will cold call, and BB will call, or both fold, or you call and button raises and you can 3 bet, etc.

Here's a little math for the most likely scenarios:

You raise:

Both fold, BB calls = +1 BB (happens 80% of the time)
One calls, BB calls = +3 BB (happens 20% of the time)

3(.2) + 1 (.8) = 1.24 BB from raising

You call:

Both call = +2 BB (happens 10%)
One calls = +1 BB (happens 60%)
Button raises, BB calls, you 3-bet, button calls, BB folds = +4 BB (happens 20%)
Neither call = 0 BB (happens 10%)

2(.1) + 1(.6) + 4(.2) + 0(.1) = 1.6 BB when you call

Of course, the percentage are dependent, but it's a little more complicated than you make it. Adjust the percentages to your opinion of your opponents, but this is my approximation, so calling is the best, with raising a close second.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact that someone may have a 5 is why you call. They will raise, allowing you to 3-bet them and BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
Or they were calling down with some crap overcards like KT, and will fold regardless, and you gain nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the thing. If they have crap and fold behind, you've missed 1 BB. Obviously we don't want to go around dropping BBs for no reason, but this hand presents a pretty good risk-reward ratio IMO.

With two guys left in the hand, it's reasonably likely that at least one was on a draw (either the straight or a smaller flush). If one of the villains made a smaller flush you and he are capping no matter what you do, but you stand a much better chance of milking BB by call-reraising instead of making BB call two cold. Likewise, if CO (say) has the straight, you'll often get an extra bet out of both BB and CO by getting fancy relative to the straightforward raise.

This particular board has a lot of completed draws, so I think the odds favor the fancy play. Take away the 4-straight board and I'd be more inclined to raise and take my extra bet from BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. It's more complicated than he has this or that. You have to think mathematically long-term. See my other post for formula. You have to think, "How often will this happen?" That's what determines the best play here. And like he said, the board here affects the percentages so that calling is best.