AK

[Nick Royale]

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Have you ever EVER seen someone check-raise and then just check the turn when a blank falls when all he had on the flop was callers.

Not that it doesn't happen, but I've never seen it happen. And even if it does, I don't think it happens often.


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I qoute myself:

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An argument could be made for charging their draws on the turn instead, but when SB gets 3 cold callers and Hero along he will start checking hands like Kx on the turn.

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We should put SB on KQ or worse. He's trying to isolate the pfr and fail majorly. You have to make a differance between check/raising to trap players and to get rid of players. In this hand SB is often making a move on the flop with a marginal hand, but will have to give it up when he gets 3 cold callers. I would like raising calling the flop and the turn better if we only got 1 cold caller, but still 3-betting is a good alternative.

I think you have too much equity not to three-bet here, particularly with three loose callers trapped. If the situation were HU vs. the SB, and the SB is fairly aggro, I would much rather see two big bets go in on the turn before the villain slows down (i.e. call, and raise turn).

I'm sure the discussion has already passed the flop stage, but I need to test my thought process.

I would 3-bet here. TPTK ain't so bad with that BDFD to the nuts. So if we're behind, we still have plenty of outs.

The SB c/r could mean lots of things at this point, too many for me to put him on a small number of hands. Trips? TPMK? 2 pair? Pair with a flush draw? Perhaps the raise was simply a ploy to make it 2 bets and limit the field. Either way, that didnt happen and with all these callers, I'm building my share of the pie.

What do we put SB on.
96, K9, K6, 99, 66. We can discount these hands a lot. He's leading the flop with these. We're making him money by 3 betting if he's got any of these.

So the protection raise by Kx is a reasonable assumption.

Now to have 3 cold callers and 'reasonable' opposition, I've got to assume an OESD and\or FD.

A spade on the turn is bad for us, our equity nose dives. The made flushes are bet/raising and judging by the action there mightn't be too many in the deck for our redraw.

So a T, 5 , 9, 6 and [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are bad cards. About 40% of the turn cards we see aren't going to make us terribly happy (even though the spade offers a redraw).

Assuming we're ahead now our equity MIGHT be as high as 50%. Is this enough justification for a raise now? Probably. I'm thinking out loud here.

We make 1BB for our 3bet. 50%*4sb.

Is this 1BB(max) worth it if we've stopped SB from leading the turn?

I think if we're confident in SB leading the turn (especially on a blank), this is a call. And as I said before, I'm pretty confident the default player at micros does.

I've been wrong many times before...

Flame away.

[FlopMe]

Get as much money in the pot as quickly as possible is my thinking here. SB might cap too. If we call and SB leads the turn, our callers might fold. Maybe they're not reasonable opponents. They might have A3o.

[Nick Royale]

I'm not assuming that SB is a 2+2er, the way I got it it was just an add on question in the original post.

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What do we put SB on.
96, K9, K6, 99, 66. We can discount these hands a lot. He's leading the flop with these. We're making him money by 3 betting if he's got any of these.

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I'm only check/raising 96 here as default play. I will ~always lead with 99/66/K9 and check/raise 96. I'm not sure what my action with K6 is. I'm not sure what the average microer will do with the 2-pair hands, but he won't check/raise 99/66 often at all (he's more likely to slowplay being afraid to blow the field or lead IMO). I think the average microer is on Kx or maybe making a play with a hand like TT the majority of the times.

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Now to have 3 cold callers and 'reasonable' opposition, I've got to assume an OESD and\or FD.

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Agree, the worst possible scenario is being up against both a fd and oesd, so I think we could assume we're being up against a fd OR oesd and a mix of pairs/gut-shots on average.

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A spade on the turn is bad for us, our equity nose dives. The made flushes are bet/raising and judging by the action there mightn't be too many in the deck for our redraw.

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If a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes and we know we're up against flush, our equity will drop to ~13%. If we're not it will probably instead move up by ~15% (that's me guessing) so a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] isn't terrible.

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Assuming we're ahead now our equity MIGHT be as high as 50%. Is this enough justification for a raise now? Probably. I'm thinking out loud here.
We make 1BB for our 3bet. 50%*4sb.

Is this 1BB(max) worth it if we've stopped SB from leading the turn?

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I ran a sim with reasonable hands and it ended up with hero having ~34% equity. 50% equity is an overestimate by a lot.

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I think if we're confident in SB leading the turn (especially on a blank), this is a call. And as I said before, I'm pretty confident the default player at micros does.

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As I've already stated I think you're wrong about this. I think you'll have a far higher equity against a player check/raising the flop to blow the field rather than against player check/raising the flop AND leading the turn into 3 cold callers and a flop bettor. I think a turn lead will narrow his possible holdings to good kings, maybe KJ+, and 2-pair or better.

I'd be interested as all hell to get Miller's views on this.
All I've got to go on is what he writes in the book.

Once again I quote.
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If you knew SB would bet the turn if you just called, then you would prefer waiting until then to raise.

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The only question then becomes: is SB going to bet if you just call the flop.

I look at it this way.

Hero is Kxs in the SB.
Preflop:
UTG limps, MP1 limps, MP3 limps, Button raises, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop (12 sb)
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Button CALLS.

Turn (11BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero?

Hero bets or Hero checks?

[Nick Royale]

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Hero is Kxs in the SB.
Preflop:
UTG limps, MP1 limps, MP3 limps, Button raises, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop (12 sb)
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets, Hero raises, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Button CALLS.

Turn (11BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero?

Hero bets or Hero checks?

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You're lucky this turn totally blanks, I'm not sure if I bet or check but I think the average microer will often check. There are many possible turn cards SB definately will check.

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If you knew SB would bet the turn if you just called, then you would prefer waiting until then to raise.


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This means he'll have to bet all the hands he check/raise. If he have other requirements for what he'll lead into 3 cold callers and a flop bettor (and all players have) than he have on the hands he'll check/raise the flop with, you'll most often be better off 3-betting the flop.

[Shillx]

When looking at hands like this, it is key that you notice if you hold blockers or not. In this case, we have the main blocker so we can be very confident that he is on Kxs and is drawing very thin (on average).

Brad

A good SB will be betting a lot of good hands in this spot. Stop checking to the raiser in big multiway pots! When he does, we know that he doesn't have jack [censored].