AQo, what the hell is going on?

[Niediam]

You can't count the Aces as 3 outs. 1.5 is more appropriate.

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't count the Aces as 3 outs. 1.5 is more appropriate.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to adjust your estimated outs based on many, many variables. One of my variables took into account the relatively high likelihood that the bettor has less than a king. Hence, I gave myself a total of roughly 5 outs which was plenty enough for a call.

And yes, the turn raise was meant to give me a free showdown UI obviously.

[CourtesyFlush]

I think the flop and turn play here are very borderline. Even against a laggy player I would probably fold this flop. On the turn, the raise is only good if you think theres a good chance he is betting less than a pair of queens. If you think he probably has a king after the turn bet, the raise is no good. You don't have a strong enough draw to raise for value on the turn against one player. A raise is causing lesser hands to fold and getting you 3 bet against better ones.

*Edit* I thought you said you had a laggy read on UTG+2 but I guess you didn't.

[Niediam]

I suggest you give SSH another read.

[CourtesyFlush]

I'm not totally positive on the turn raise, but the nut flush draw + second pair is a strong holding.

A big leak I used to have was thinking "Hey, I have a multiway hand, gotta raise it!". This kind of attitude can cost you a lot of bets. Before you raise these hands, especially on the turn, put your opponent on one and ask yourself if you are probably drawing, or probably have the best hand currently. If it's the former, it's usually a mistake to be raising the turn.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
I gave myself a total of roughly 5 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure? Itemize your outs. Be as specific as you can.

[IPSC]

Does he have 4.5 outs?

1.5 for the backdoor flush draw and 3 for the Aces and Queens?

I give 3 outs for the Aces and Queens because his queens outs are either no good (against a Kx hand) or he is reverse dominated by an Ace rag hand.

Pot is about one small bet to small to call, but if your sure UTG+1 will call and not raise or fold then I would think flop call is fine.

------------------------------------------------------------

Assuming that we win this pot 30% of the time (14/46 = .30 ?), i think you need another caller to raise this turn.

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
I suggest you give SSH another read.

[/ QUOTE ]

I posted this because it's just a different situation. I fold AQ on this flop if I have absolutely no read or if my read is that the bettor is at least decent. I had reads that both villains involved were terrible. Perhaps I should have been more clear about that.