Folding AA here?

[Dave D]

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I think it far more likely that Big stack has decided to throw his weight around and is looking to double you up. I voted AA-QQ, AK. We can still use a little more equity here. Two players still have to bust out. I highly doubt it will be the two short stacks.

CSC

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I agree, I think he's just trying to steal some blinds. I call with AK and AKs b/c I think he very likely has a weaker ace.

It was only $24 to get in, you cant play weak tight just because it's a 12k prize.

[frostbrn]

I voted for AA-QQ, and AK. The strongest hand I could think that he could do that with would be KK and not wanting to play postflop if an A comes. More likely I think you're up against Ax or a lower pair and he is trying to capitalize on the uber gap concept that comes into play this late into MTT satellite events since we're having this discussion now on just how premium of a hand you need to call with.

[adanthar]

Calling AK here is so very very horrible that I am very surprised that any 2+2'ers would even think about it. (Hint: against a random hand, it ties 88.)

I call with aces. I think about calling kings but probably don't, and turbofold queens. If you call with anything lower than kings you need to rethink how you play satellites; sats are by far my best game and I am 100% sure I am right here.

[nightlyraver]

OK, so no one pointed it out, but this hypo is a small variation of the hypo in the final chapter of HoH2. Thus, the logic is not my own. I posted the pole to see if anyone actually follows this when playing...

So the first step is to estimate the probability that each player will make it before any of the cards are dealt. When we get down to 4 players, each has a 100% chance of qualifying (same as winning) so at any earlier point all probabilities must add up to 400%, not 100%.

To make the math easier, let's round the numbers and put them all into an equation:

(this is in the order of stacks listed in the OP)

x + .95x + 4.2x + 3.9x + 3.8x + 4x = 400%
16.85x = 400%
x is therefore about 23.75%

This means that Hero is about 92.5% to qualify while the shortest stack is about 23.75% and Villian is about 95%. This makes sense if you think about it since the short stacks are huge dogs, but they still have a chance, while Hero and the others are big favorites but not guaranteed a spot.

So, what happens when the 2 short stacks fold and Villian moves in and you pick up AA - do we call?

Clearly, Villian does not understand the whole concept of this kind of tourney, which is really annoying to say the least. Let's go through it - what are the probabilities that we win?

Versus KK - 81.1%; 99 - 80.1%; 22 - 81.2%; AKo - 92%; AKs - 87.2%; A2o - 92%; A2s - 87.3%; JTs - 78.1%; Q3o - 87.4%; 72o - 87.3%.

You are currently 92.5% to qualify, and you will remain as such if you fold. Obviously you are 0% to qualify if you call and lose. This isn't exactly accurate, but let's assume that you're 100% to qualify if you call and win.

We are about even money against AKo-A2o and we are in a -EV situation against all other holdings... EVEN IF WE KNOW THAT VILLIAN HAS 72o WE SHOULD STILL FOLD!!!! There is absolutly no sense in a confrontation against another big stack in this type of situation.

Harrington argues that any call from Hero will be an error no matter what (notice that Vilian's move is the much bigger error unless he is certain that all the players yet to act are well versed in game theory and will always fold).

Though some people opined that they fold everything, most people said that they call with aces, and many said they call with queens or AK and sometimes a few more. So why do people call with anything in this spot? How common is it that everything really is folded in this spot?

[nightlyraver]

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I call with aces... and I am 100% sure I am right here.

[/ QUOTE ]


Nope!

[nightlyraver]

Bump!

[adanthar]

The problem with that analysis is that it only works if the other big stacks are equally unwilling to play, as they more or less should be. In any online sat, they aren't, and will frequently call short stack all ins with relative trash like two Broadway or medium pairs. I would put the chance of both of the short stacks doubling up before one busts at somewhere between 20%-30%, and at that point you need to play poker again. Therefore, calling with aces is probably correct despite the math.

However, I'm still stunned that someone here would call AK.

[2005]

I voted fold everything... I think you're risking way too much here.

[raptor517]

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I voted fold everything... I think you're risking way too much here.

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i think its necessary to get in with aces here. one of the shorties doubles you grind down a bit from blinds and you actually have to play a bit of poker. i would love to see some exact figures though, as i think its quite close. holla

[nightlyraver]

See my above post for the exact figures.

Surprisingly enough, even if Villian has 72o it's mathematically incorrect to call even with AA. And, it's not even close.