Good spot for overcalls ?

[crunchy1]

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It's pretty close, obviously. My problem with raising the river is simply that, by doing so, you are basically limiting yourself to one customer, and a pretty speculative one at that. I'd rather take the slew of other, more speculative customers than just the one.

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I disagree and that's fine.

The only time that we're profitting from going for overcalls here is when BOTH BB/UTG overcall gaining us 2 extra BBs vs. only gaining one from MP calling our raise (or from getting overcalled in one spot).

I think a main part of where we disagree is that you seem to think MP is folding to a raise. I don't think we should be expecting a 2/4 player to be taking a bet/fold line against 3 opponents on the river given the action on previous streets and the generally innocuous river card.

I could see making this play with a weaker hand like a small 2 pair or weak ace; but we're holding the nuts here! There's nothing that says BB/UTG won't cold-call 2 on the river if they're loose enough or the six helped them. Certainly this possibilty is equally as likely as having them both overcall. If you agree with that then you must agree that raising is best because that line at least gives us the potential to gain extra bets on the river.

[W. Deranged]

Crunchy,

Fair. I think this is very much a feel decision and I haven't played the 2/4 recently, so others may have a better sense of what is most likely to happen.

One thing that I'm pretty sure of is that the expected number of additional bets you are going to win on the river here is probably < 1.

[wall_st]

Results:

MP2 shows 108s for a busted flush draw
Hero shows straight
UTG+2 calls with 67o for a rivered paired of sixes.

So if you want to look at it from a results oriented point of view it seems like a great place for overcalls as raising on the river earns me 0 bets.

On the flop call, it still looks close but I am still leaning torwards this being a crappy call. The table was extremely loose passive and i had seen 0 check raises at this point. Sfer is right though not being able to close the betting on the flop call makes this call even more questionable and greatly reduces the implied odds.

[W. Deranged]

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Results:

MP2 shows 108s for a busted flush draw


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How da ya like me now?

Just kidding. Not to be results oriented but this is very often going to happen. I see river bluffs with missed flush draws with some frequency. I think people feel they have bluffing credibility because they bet the flop, or perhaps just feel more "invested" in the hand.