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Old 07-20-2005, 03:28 PM
M.B.E. M.B.E. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Vancouver, B.C.
Posts: 1,552
Default Tournament theory question

This is something I've been meaning to calculate but haven't gotten around to it.

It's toward the end of a large tournament, well into the money. Say there are 21 players left on three tables, about a million chips in play, top 90 get paid, a small bump from 19th to 18th, then 18th through 10th get the same amount, with as usual large bumps for each place at the final table. The prize structure isn't really the point of this problem.

Blinds are 1500/3000, ante 400, our stack is 43,000 (around the median for the tournament). It is folded to us on the button. Pot is 7300.

The small blind has 20,000 but is playing very tight -- he actually said that his main goal was to make it to the next prize level (18th place).

The big blind has 130,000, largest stack at the table. He has been playing very aggressively, and if we raise he will come over the top liberally.

For purposes of this problem, assume our only options are: (a) fold, (b) raise to 8000, and (c) raise all-in. (Limping is not an option.)

If we raise any amount, SB will go all in with AA, KK, or QQ, and fold everything else. If SB is in, then BB will fold everything except AA and KK. But if we raise and SB folds, then BB will play as follows:

If we raised to 8000, BB will move in with any pocket pair, any suited ace, offsuit aces down to A8, any suited broadway, KQo, KJo, J9s, T9s, 98s, and 87s. Everything else he will fold.

If we raise all-in, BB will call with 77 and higher, A9s and higher, AJo and higher, and KQs, and fold everything else.

The question is, with what range of hands should we move in and with what range of hands should we raise to 8000.

For example, if we have AQo are we better off moving in (which usually will win the blinds), or raising to 8000 (which won't win the blinds as much, but will often allow us to get our 43,000 all-in as a favourite against BB).

For another example, if we have 72o are we better off folding or raising to 8000 (then folding if reraised)?

EDIT: This turned out to be more complicated than I intended. To simplify it, let's assume that the SB will always fold, even AA. Maybe he's away from the table on a 10-minute penalty. What I'm mainly interested is what kind of hand you need on the button for it to be correct to "trap" an aggressive player in the big blind.
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