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#11
05-31-2005, 12:11 PM
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Re: two pair confusion
[ QUOTE ]
you're out of position and you're going to be 3-betting against someone who only raises 6% or so of his hands preflop. I'd understand the 3-bet against a looser raiser, but against this certain player, its spewing. [/ QUOTE ] I don't agree, since we're not given a number on hands we have on this player I'm not sure about the read, but even if we assume it's over at least 200 hands players with 6% PFR still will be able to steal/isolate from CO. AQs is better than many hands he'll raise from CO if he is the least bit aware about position. Plus it seems like 5 players are going to the flop and we have an excellent multiway hand with callers trapped (probably holding not very attractive hands). The flop question I leave to better players [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 
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#12
05-31-2005, 12:46 PM
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Re: two pair confusion
[ QUOTE ]
Cause MP2 has less than 1 BB left, raise is good play. If he had more chips situation is different. [/ QUOTE ] OK, I missed the part where MP2 had nothing left, three bet is better b/c u'll also extract from the others left in the hand. Flop raise is still bad. I like 3-betting PF. Your equity is enough 5 handed to make this 3-bet OOP. If there were less people, I would not 3-bet.
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#13
05-31-2005, 02:39 PM
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Re: two pair confusion
Preflop is read dependent as to whether to call or rr.
Flop, to me, is a clear fold. You are behind to any K. You are potentially reverse dominated should your A appear. You are potentially dominated if your A appears. Counting outs... maybe 1.2 for the A. 1.5 for the bd flush. maybe .3 for the bd str8. Total 3 outs. Someone chime in my counting, here. What hands are you folding out with your flop raise that you want to fold out? Maybe, just maybe, A6, A4. All other A you want in. More likely is that you are folding out the hands that you want to chase. Furthermore, you kill your implied odds with your raise. Even a flop call seems thin to me and unwarranted.
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#14
05-31-2005, 05:53 PM
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Re: two pair confusion
[ QUOTE ]
Counting outs... maybe 1.2 for the A. 1.5 for the bd flush. maybe .3 for the bd str8. Total 3 outs. Someone chime in my counting, here. [/ QUOTE ] Mo, you say I had about 3 outs here. That’s a conservative estimate, at least according to SSHE (at least from what I remember since I don’t have it with me right now): 1.5 outs for the A, 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush, and 0.5 outs for the backdoor straight. That gives us 3.5 outs total, or 12.4:1 odds (even with your conservative 3 outs, that’s giving us 14.7:1). [ QUOTE ] Flop, to me, is a clear fold. You are behind to any K. You are potentially reverse dominated should your A appear. You are potentially dominated if your A appears. [/ QUOTE ] The pot is offering us 16:1, and while there’s the possibility of a raise behind us, I don’t like folding because the pot is so big. In a big pot, you can't always worry about hands that beat you. As Ed Miller said: [ QUOTE ] You know those guys that play "fearless" poker and seem to win? When the pot is big, it is time to play fearless. Throw in that extra bet or raise. If you crash and burn, so be it. That is winning poker, though. If you don't have the stomach for it, take up tiddle-e-winks. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not saying that raising was the clear correct thing to do, but I think folding is out of the question. -Eric
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#16
05-31-2005, 06:11 PM
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Re: two pair confusion
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: I assume you're going for a c/r here, which is fine, but i think that i like a bet better. [/ QUOTE ] button was 27.9/9.3/3.14. So yes, I was going for the check-raise given his high AF. I didn't put button on AK because he probably would have 3-bet pf. -Eric
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#17
05-31-2005, 06:12 PM
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Re: two pair confusion
We need a "real" read for that. MP2 could probably limp with 98o-65o/J7s/A6o and hands like that. if i get to assume CO is somewhat aware about position and isolation (but not as much as he should) I would say he's raising KJo/ATo/KTs/88 as lower boundaries. (maybe a little less than that)
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#20
05-31-2005, 06:39 PM
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Re: two pair confusion
If he use to play straight forward I would say no. Even though his AF is low he won't check through on the turn with AK. Obviously he don't hold KK or AA (no preflop cap and no postflop aggression). He could hold QQ. But he shouldn't be calling the flop with that, but some players have hard to fold their high PP's. He checks through on the turn and don't dare to 3-bet the river when he hit his set since the Q completes a flush and straight.
I don't think he's holding QQ though since 2 of them are already accounted for. The only way he could have you beat here is if he hit a flush on the river but decides to go for overcalls instead of 3-betting. But then you should be facing a cap when you 3-bet. [ QUOTE ] I posted earlier in the thread, but I'll say it again here. CO's stats are over 82 hands and he has attempted to steal blinds 1 out of 2 times. [/ QUOTE ] Then I would say that the number of hands is a little too low to draw to big conclusion about his stats. I could proably have those stats if I was being delt a little more limping hands than average but miss the flops. And my "real" stats is vpip 16.5% pfr 11.4% and AF 2.8.
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