LUCK...

[Xhad]

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you should add a "neither/nor" option

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Why? What is the alternative?

[chessforlife]

i seeen too many strange stuff at strance times to deny luck.

We're just arguing semantics.

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Of course luck exists, how is it even possible for it not to?

Are you not lucky if you have QQ and another player has KK and the flop is QQK? Or if the player on the button decides to bluff all-in with 72 offsuit while you're in the big blind with AA, is that not lucky?

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*sigh*

Ok, you formulate the definition of "luck" as: An unlikely event resulting in a higher-than-average value or profit for any given hand or session

I, on the other hand, formulate "short-term variance" as: An unlikely event resulting in a higher-than-average value or profit for any given hand or session

(drumroll, as this may be the best post ever by anyone ever ever)

If you want to talk about long-term "luck" or "variance" - as the two are synonomous - you're talking about a different story. It doesn't exist, and I'll prove it. You define the concept of long-term luck as: Short term luck (aka variance) repeated enough to produce a profit or loss dramatically different from what one might expect.

Go to any poker calculator and enter a random matchup... if you calculate it a few times, you might notice the numbers are slightly different, for example the hand that's a 68.35% favorite one time might be a 68.34% favorite the next calculation. Despite that short-term variance shown in the decimal place, that number will NEVER have enough repeated short term variance for it to equal 75%... or even 69%... no matter how many times you calculate that, since the calculations are simulated with hundreds of thousands of generated board combinations, the short term luck will never be able to overcome the brute of raw statistics.

On a side note, if there was an entity such as luck, what would be the thing that controlled the delegation of this luck? God? Karma? Would luck be a zero sum game, as in if someone is 85% luckier than the average, there must be someone out there who is 85% unluckier than avg? Since most people think they're unlucky, and luck was controlled by God or karma, wouldn't that mean that either God was malevolent, or most poker-players have bad karma (the latter, now that I think about it, not all unlikely.)

Currently, Barry Tanenbaum is doing a bunch of articles on something called Prospect Theory, it offers some great insights as to why some players feel unlucky. It's on cardplayer.com.... good stuff, check it out.

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I'd say you're putting way too much thought into it. Whether you actually believe there is a luck entity or not doesn't really matter. The point is that if I flop quads at the same time another player flops a full house, I'm going to consider myself lucky that those things happened at the right time. Do I believe that certain things can bring you luck? No I don't... Although these items may improve your outlook and confidence for one reason or another and create the illusion of bringing you luck. But to say there is absolutley no such thing as luck is going a little overboard in my opinion.

[lozen]

After today cutoff raises with no one in. I am in SB with pocket aces and rearaise. Flop comes 7-7-8, Turn 8 and River jack. I loose to 7-2 off. Made me believe in badluck

worst post evar?