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#12
07-13-2005, 08:06 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
I would guess Jx, 5x or some middle pocket pair. I agree he would've bet the flop if he had a queen. It looks like with his turn raise he is trying to punish a bluff and protect his hand. I don't think your hand is good more than 1/9th of the time. And I think a river bet would've been better.
edit: ok, I understand your thinking that he might bluff a flush draw. I would argue the pot is too big and a bet out is better in case he has Jxs or 5xs that hit a flush draw. 
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#16
07-13-2005, 08:14 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
[ QUOTE ]
If you are going to do this, I like a river bet more than I do a river call. I think you lose more by not betting in a 8BB pot and giving him the oportunity to fold an ace, or some pair+flushdraw. [/ QUOTE ] The more I think about this, the more I think you're right. It's probably better just to bet/fold the river and keep on the gas. I can easily fold if he raises and he might even fold a Jack here.
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#17
07-13-2005, 08:14 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
[ QUOTE ]
He's going to have a busted flush draw a good percentage of the time, and it's usually not going to contain a better A, since any good suited A he would have raised preflop. [/ QUOTE ] My problem with this is I don't think many good TAGs are going to bluff a busted draw against a turn 3-better. Maybe if you had C/R the turn and he called and then you check the river -- he can put you on a semi-bluff; but it seems to me he would be considerably less likely to do so on a turn lead and 3-bet.
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#19
07-13-2005, 08:34 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] With "played on the 3rd level"... do you mean "I just 3-bet the turn with the worst hand and then called on the river"? I think you are spewing, but it probably worked out for you in this hand since you posted it. [/ QUOTE ] If you hate this play, at least tell me your range of hands for CO and your reasoning behind it. [/ QUOTE ] Well, my first thought was that I really hate the play. The pot is very small and you are putting in 3 bets on the turn with a weak hand. Putting him on a hand range is not easy since his play looks strange. He should bet any Q or J on the flop, he should also bet a flush draw or straight draw like T9 or KT. He should also probably bet a monster hand like a set of 5's since he don't want to give a free card to gutshot or something. If villian has two clubs, he could possibly raise you on the turn here. But you could very well have a queen and missed a check/raise so I don't like his turn raise at all with a draw here. He should know that a turn raise here looks suspicious and the pot is small so it is a -EV play. If he has a flushdraw then you probably have the best hand. If he had A8s or better he would probably have raised preflop to isolate the limper. So check/calling the river is the only way to gain a last bet from him. But since you 3-bet the turn he really should understand that you are not going to fold on this blank river. So I don't really think his play makes sense with any hand. But if I have to put him on a hand it would have to be a badly slowplayed set of 5's or flushdraw which is weaker than your hand. I would never play the hand the way you did, but perhaps it's not bad at all. At first I thought it was really really horrible, but now I am not sure anymore. The only thing I know is I don't like villians line no matter what he has.
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#20
07-13-2005, 08:54 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
no not at all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I just don't see with what he would raise the turn here. Unless he is a complete donk he isn't getting go odds on his turn raise if he is on a draw... Basically I would put him on at least A high to raise you like that... So I don't get the 3 bet here...
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