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#2
12-19-2005, 03:01 AM
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Re: A8o
[ QUOTE ]
your like a man possessed... [/ QUOTE ] This is very true, however, it's not at all w/protecting my hand. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] I believe it's the correct line in this particular situation. [ QUOTE ] scared of a little variance, quit playing SH LHE [/ QUOTE ] It's been 25yrs of SH play and I'm not going to stop now, nor will I ever. [ QUOTE ] i like to get value when i flop the nuts. [/ QUOTE ] I hear you, but it's not like you have AT on a T-high flop, [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]. [ QUOTE ] OP, river, ez ez call. of course call. [/ QUOTE ] At least you and I actually answered Sublime's original question as many avoided it and we agree on the call too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#3
12-19-2005, 02:25 AM
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Re: A8o
[ QUOTE ]
There is no reason to c/r this flop, you hand is weak and you need to protect it. C/R doesn't do it, betting does. C/R'ing builds a nice pot for overs to correctly call. I think this comes right down to that old TOP like process of "think why you raise". [/ QUOTE ] Betting the flop will work well if the PFR has a worse pair and raises. But that's not a very likely hand for him. Otherwise I think he calls with overs and raises when you are beat. So you get no protection for your hand when you are ahead and get raised and isolated when you are drawing. Ick. Supporting data for my view are 1) the tentative read on the Button as a sensible TAG, 2) a flop that should suggest to Button that OP is betting a pair and not bluffing a draw, and 3) Button seeing a SB behind him who is not going to cooperate with an overcard raise by folding a small pair. OTOH the checkraise is money in the bank. We have much more than 1/3 pot equity so if we can't protect our hand anyway then why not charge the maximum amount and hope for the best? The flop is very read-sensitive and actual knowledge of how Button plays should supersede the guesswork given above. There are lots of gungho LAG-TAGs who will raise this flop because they are the PFR and it's their turn. If you find one then by all means take advantage.
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#4
12-19-2005, 02:34 AM
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Re: A8o
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Betting the flop will work well if the PFR has a worse pair and raises. But that's not a very likely hand for him. [/ QUOTE ] The likely hand is overcards and his read indeed was... [ QUOTE ] There are lots of gungho LAG-TAGs who will raise this flop because they are the PFR and it's their turn [/ QUOTE ] That's what the OP was tying to do.
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#5
12-19-2005, 04:04 AM
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Re: A8o
[ QUOTE ]
The likely hand is overcards and his read indeed was... [ QUOTE ] There are lots of gungho LAG-TAGs who will raise this flop because they are the PFR and it's their turn [/ QUOTE ] That's what the OP was tying to do. [/ QUOTE ] OP really has no read beyond roughly TAG. Consider that 18/17/5 over 60 hands means roughly 10 VP$IPs and 9 PFRs preflop. He's probably seen about 12 flops total and his postflop AF = 5 is probably about 10 bets+raises divided by 2 calls. The statistical significance of all this is roughly nil. I assume Villain is probably some sort of TAG and I'll bias that range a little toward the tight side. That's my read. If sublime doesn't think that's a fair assessment of what he knows about Villain then he can adjust my play advice accordingly. [Side note: that Villain only called once preflop in 60 hands really looks like a fluke. We all have to defend our big blinds and complete the small blind sometimes. If all your playable starting hands in a small sample happen to be PFRs then of course the AF is apt to be abnormally high.]
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#6
12-08-2005, 01:28 AM
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Re: A8o
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Button is 17/18/5 over 60 hands [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty tough to play against a guy that raises 1% of the time without any cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Once the SB folds, I call this guy down too. If the SB calls, you can muck on the turn.
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#7
12-08-2005, 01:29 AM
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Re: A8o
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Button is 17/18/5 over 60 hands [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty tough to play against a guy that raises 1% of the time without any cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Although those stats seem highly suspicious, they are definetly possible. Imagine someone who never voluntarily puts in money on any street, but always raises the BB when it is checked to him. Then try to find some inbetween to get these stats.
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#8
12-08-2005, 01:39 AM
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Re: A8o
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Button is 17/18/5 over 60 hands [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty tough to play against a guy that raises 1% of the time without any cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Although those stats seem highly suspicious, they are definetly possible. Imagine someone who never voluntarily puts in money on any street, but always raises the BB when it is checked to him. Then try to find some inbetween to get these stats. [/ QUOTE ] VPIP and PFR are preflop stats, and all other streets have no bearing on them. If you NEVER EVER call or check preflop, your VPIP and PFR will be the same number. That is all.
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#9
12-08-2005, 01:43 AM
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Re: A8o
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Button is 17/18/5 over 60 hands [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty tough to play against a guy that raises 1% of the time without any cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Although those stats seem highly suspicious, they are definetly possible. Imagine someone who never voluntarily puts in money on any street, but always raises the BB when it is checked to him. Then try to find some inbetween to get these stats. [/ QUOTE ] VPIP and PFR are preflop stats, and all other streets have no bearing on them. If you NEVER EVER call or check preflop, your VPIP and PFR will be the same number. That is all. [/ QUOTE ] Err... I don't know why I said "on any street". I meant that you can have a VPIP of 0, by never playing any hand unless it is unraised to you on the button. If you choose to raise some of those hands, your PRF will be greater than 0, while your VPIP will still be 0. Actually, maybe I am wrong on that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I guess I probably am. Never mind. I thought VPIP was when you called preflop, but I guess it can also be when you raise from the BB.
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#10
12-08-2005, 02:00 AM
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Re: A8o
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Button is 17/18/5 over 60 hands [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty tough to play against a guy that raises 1% of the time without any cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Once the SB folds, I call this guy down too. If the SB calls, you can muck on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not particularly worried about the SB beating us here even if he calls the river. If anything, his call probably makes me want to call even more, even though I'm calling anyways without it. -DrG
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