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#11
06-21-2005, 04:32 PM
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Re: Hand from $5000 Pot limit WSOP event
I fold. A pro like Bigler is not going to try and put a move on an unknown in hand #1 of a large buy-in WSOP event. Hero is representing the Q probably with an ace, so what can Bigler be thinking. This looks like a flopped set.
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#12
06-21-2005, 04:50 PM
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Re: Hand from $5000 Pot limit WSOP event
[ QUOTE ]
I call just in case he has QJ and has the boat, which could be a possibility with his play, but he could have KQ just as well and was trying to trap the whole time. [/ QUOTE ] Ditto
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#13
06-21-2005, 05:08 PM
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Re: Hand from $5000 Pot limit WSOP event
His flat calling the flop raises the hairs on my neck.
The Q on the turn makes it more likely you're way ahead/way behind. Check behind on the turn. Flat call the river if it looks like a blocking bet. Value bet if he checks. Fold to a pot sized bet. (probably lost to QJ or 55?)
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#15
06-21-2005, 05:15 PM
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Re: Hand from $5000 Pot limit WSOP event
I don't think villain gets into a pot with either KQ or QJ for 4XBB as they are likely to be dominated. I personally think its JJ as it will play much better than 55 after the flop.
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#16
06-21-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: Hand from $5000 Pot limit WSOP event
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think villain gets into a pot with either KQ or QJ for 4XBB as they are likely to be dominated. I personally think its JJ as it will play much better than 55 after the flop. [/ QUOTE ] i agree that 55/JJ are the most likely two hands (in that order, imo), but the bet to hero is less than 1/2 pot. hero doesn't even need to be right 1/4 to make the call correct. i think he'll win the hand more like 50%+.
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#17
06-21-2005, 05:35 PM
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Re: Hand from $5000 Pot limit WSOP event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Fold to a pot sized bet. [/ QUOTE ] if you take your line, there's no way you should fold to a pot-sized river bet. [/ QUOTE ] why not? If the turn goes check/check then he leads the river for pot ...well, I guess it's weaktight but wouldn't he be more likely to use a 1/2 pot bet or so to push me off my hand if he's bluffing?
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#18
06-21-2005, 05:36 PM
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Re: Hand from $5000 Pot limit WSOP event
I guarantee that for Chris Bigler (one of the best in the world at PLHE) to be putting 66% of his stack in the middle on the very first hand of a 2-day tournament, he has the nuts or very, very, very close to it. I doubt Bigler would play 55 or QJ out of position on hand #1, so he has JJ approximately 100% of the time. The absolute best-case scenario for your friend is that he has A-Q and a slpit-pot. This is a clear-as-day fold.
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#19
06-21-2005, 06:50 PM
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Re: Hand from $5000 Pot limit WSOP event
[ QUOTE ]
IIRC Bigler is insanely tight. If the above is true, I would contemplate checking behind on the turn and setting up either a river value bet from Bigler or a total bluff. [/ QUOTE ] Is this *really* what you would do in the heat of the moment after turning top trips/top kicker? Or are you *just posting* that this is what you would do? Not trying to flame.
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#20
06-21-2005, 07:14 PM
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Re: Hand from $5000 Pot limit WSOP event
I don't think the river decision is really much of a decision at all. At that point you should just call the bet... it's likely that Bigler has flopped a set and now you are beat, but there is enough of a chance that you are not to call here given the pot size.
That said, the real decision in my view is on the turn. When your friend calls the 1500 raise he has already decided that his hand is good and he needs to be willing to play for all of his chips. Bigler either has already made a full house on the turn or has an inferior hand to your friend. Not sure what I would do on the turn, but most likely I would just call it down and hope for the best.
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