Common problem with super-draws

[Marlow]

Thanks, I'll fix the typo ASAP.

Quote:
"I try to play small pots until I have a better feel for how hard I have to push things to make him fold."

Question: Do you want him to fold the flop, or are you trying to gauge it for a move on a later street?

[Ghazban]

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Thanks, I'll fix the typo ASAP.

Quote:
"I try to play small pots until I have a better feel for how hard I have to push things to make him fold."

Question: Do you want him to fold the flop, or are you trying to gauge it for a move on a later street?

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I'm not sure I understand what you're asking. If the villain is going to go to the felt with AA even with a 400BB stack on a board like this, I'm not too thrilled about racing (provided, of course, that he has a nonzero chance of paying me off when I hit something). Its not that I want him to fold if I get it in with 15 clean outs twice (I don't); its that I don't need to take that kind of variance if I can win more in a different hand (say when I have a set on a board like this).

In any capped game, deep stack situations change slightly as the effect of one hand on future hands is tangible. If I lose my 400BB stack when I put it in as a small favorite, I am not likely to be able to get another shot at putting that much money in vs. this opponent again this session.

Re: my quote, I was speaking more of the hand in general than the flop action in particular. I can't get a good idea of how much pressure this guy will take with an overpair-- I need to get that information by watching him in other hands (both vs. me and vs. others at the table).

[pho75]

I'm assuming villian was the PF raiser. Unless villian has AKc or AQc you probably have the best hand if you can get to the river. I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

[fuzzbox]

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I'm assuming villian was the PF raiser. Unless villian has AKc or AQc you probably have the best hand if you can get to the river. I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

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Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

[teamdonkey]

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I'm assuming villian was the PF raiser. Unless villian has AKc or AQc you probably have the best hand if you can get to the river. I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

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Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

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i think it's more like 54/46 against an overpair, assuming you have no folding equity. OOP i don't mind getting it in on the flop at all.

[pzhon]

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I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

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Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] In the villain's place, would you call 250BBs with one pair? Sometimes pushing decreases your variance.

[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] It's not 50-50. Not only is the OESFD a 54-46 favorite again KK or AA (averaging over the cases of a club or not), there is a significant amount of dead money after you get reraised on the flop.

[fuzzbox]

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I would lead for $10 and hope to get raised by a big overpair.

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Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

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[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] In the villain's place, would you call 250BBs with one pair? Sometimes pushing decreases your variance.

[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] It's not 50-50. Not only is the OESFD a 54-46 favorite again KK or AA (averaging over the cases of a club or not), there is a significant amount of dead money after you get reraised on the flop.

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These stacks are very deep, and you dont know what your FE is. If the action goes hero pot, villain pot raise, hero push, then if villain calls then you are AT BEST a small favourite over villain.

The "dead" money is the $30 pot. This is not worth shoving 1k in postflop on a coinflip.

There are better ways to play such a magnificient hand.

Consider this kind of action
Hero leads pot (30), villain makes it 120, hero just calls

Pot (270)
Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A seemingly innocuous card to villain, and you can either lead for 200, and villain doesnt know what to do with his AA. Or maybe you check, and villain believes you to be flushing, so he bets 200, and you can now push, the pot is 400 - which is well worth fighting for.

Or another turn could go
Pot (270)
2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checks, villain bets 200, hero pushes. Villain will have a tough time calling that with his Aces, as your action really looks like a set. If he does call, well you still have many outs.

Or what about this
Pot (270)
2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
hero checks ... villain checks ... what? He checks? Well yes, villain might be a little afraid of a check/raise, so he might just check here, and then the river ..

J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Now you lead for 300, and villain has to look you up (if indeed he has AA).


I would judge all of the above scenarios to be superior to firing 1k into the pot on the flop. All of them increase your chances of winning the pot, and increase the amount of money you can win with it. You also tend to put maximum pressure on an opponent who does have a big pair like AA or KK, and there are various scenarios where those hands will call big bets on the turn/river when they are drawing stone dead.

[ahnuld]

You get it allin on the flop here, he either folds alot and you win, he either calls and you gamble as a sligth favorite, or he calls and you have a set next time which you play the same way and hes [censored]. It all adds up to extra cash for you. Anyone who doesnt wanna get in on this flop either doesnt have enough gamble in them or ins underrolled.

[pzhon]

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Do you always like to gamble for 250BBs on a 50/50 shot?

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In the villain's place, would you call 250BBs with one pair? Sometimes pushing decreases your variance.


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These stacks are very deep, and you dont know what your FE is.

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The folding equity is huge. Expect people to raise/fold with TT-QQ, and perhaps a few hands without a pair. Some people will fold AA. It's particularly valuable to get higher flush draws to fold.

If it were very likely that the villain would call, then it would be much more profitable to bet/3-bet all-in on the flop with sets.

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If the action goes hero pot, villain pot raise, hero push, then if villain calls then you are AT BEST a small favourite over villain.

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It doesn't bother me to be a small favorite in the very unlikely case that the villain calls, and to pick up a small to medium sized pot most of the time.

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The "dead" money is the $30 pot. This is not worth shoving 1k in postflop on a coinflip.
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Consider this kind of action
Hero leads pot (30), villain makes it 120, hero just calls


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At that point, there isn't $30 in the pot. There is $180.

It's tough to get paid off OOP. It makes more sense to try to keep the pot small until you hit when you have position.

[FlyingStart]

I checkraise big if villain was the PFR. If I was PFR I lead for pot (If you are gonna win a big pot with this hand you have to disguise your hand. Leading also have the advantage that you can steal the pot on the turn UI because you have AA thus far in the hand). In both cases I push if he raises again.

edit: good point about the big stacks.. maybe this calls for a slightly different different line depending on villain. Maybe slow down a little on the flop and try to get more money in on the turn when you make your hand, hopefully it will be the straight not the flush. (both would be nice if he as AKs tho [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img])