42o in the BB, would you play it?

[exist47]

NEVER play 42o unless you are in the BB in an unraised pot. Look at these stats for 42o from Turbo Texas Hold'em.

flop three 4's or three 2's = 1.3% or 73.2 to 1

flop two pair 4's and 2's = 2.0% or 48.5 to 1

flop 5 card straight = 0.6% or 154.6 to 1

flop pair of 4's = 13.5% or 6.4 to 1

flop pair of 2's = 13.5% or 6.4 to 1

flop unpaired open end straight draw = 2.2% or 44.4 to 1

The only hand you have relatively good chance of hitting is a pair, which will almost never win and almost always end up costing you money. The percentage of time that you hit a hand that might hold up (trips, two pair, a straight) is 3.9%. My guess is that you need at least 25 to 1 odds (most likely more) to make playing 42o profitable.

[davidross]

THat's what I was looking for. I appreciate it.

[bad beetz]

I think another thing is that when 42 makes two pair it is incredibly vulnerable to anybody else with a pair. It's straights are vulnerable to higher straights, and when it makes boat and loses to a higher one, all of these things will cost allot of extra money.

[Jeffage]

In HPFAP, S&M talk about calling raises with these types of crappy hands from the BB (their example is 54o). The advice is that these types of hands usually need to be suited to be profitable bc they would usually have two ways to win (a flush or str8). 98o would be a better hand because it is much more likely to win the hand with something like a pair of 9's than a pair of 5's. And you have 42o, which is even worse than 54o. If you think you are such an expert that this hand is profitable for you, that's cool. Just know that just about every player who makes money at this game disagrees.

Jeff

[Joe Tall]

42s is a call here, I think, because you will flop a 4 flush 1 in 7.5 times.

I would need way more than 7.5 to call with 42s to make up for time you draw a flush and lose to a higher flush. Just think, 53s has you dominated here...um, that's quite a sobering fact. I've NEVER played 42o, unless it was free in the BB.

[Allan]

Maybe these excerpts will give you give you some stuff to think about,

From Sklansky's TOP

The most comon mistake players make is playing too many hands. In Las Vegas I frequently find this tendency to be the only weakness in some opponents. Everything else about their play is top-notch. Consequently, there is little I can do to take advantage of these players' mistakes other than not play as loosely as they do. Yet just by playing better starting hands than they do is a decent edge.

From Zee's essay The Different Stages In a Players LIfe

All hands start to look like they have value, and with skillful manipulation winning the pot is easy. He begins to believe that he can play bad hands for profit where in reality he can't. The player has taken a big step backward and a long leap forwards at the same time. The tight style needed is gone and a new imaginative style is born and he becomes loose aggressive. Unfortunately for him, if he gets too loose he loses all his money and may never recover. But for those that are moving up the ladder, this is the last leap before the finishing stage.

Allan

[davidross]

THe Zee excerpt sounds a little like me, except strangely enough my flops seen % has dropped from around 30% down to 25% in the last few weeks.

THanks for digging those up.

[Nottom]

Maybe for a half bet from the SB and a few limpers even then I think I could wait for 42s at least, but I just can't bring myself to ever pay a full bet for this hand. Next you will be contemplaiting cold-calling with 72o from the button in a capped family pot because you have position and the "odds can't be that bad can they?"

I think you've been playing too much recently and are getting into the "sure my hand may suck, but I can outplay these guys post-flop" mentality.

[Ulysses]

Here's the way I look at it:

This is a marginal at best call w/ 7 limpers (let's assume we know the blinds have bad hands) to me on the button, agreed? OK, that means even with position I don't like this hand against a bunch of so-so hands.

Now, what do we have? The same odds, except that I'm in worst position and against what are likely to be 3 pretty good hands.

Easy, easy muck. And I play a lot of hands.

[eMarkM]

Let's clarify some things. I think you have two different hands confused where I was UTG and you were one of the blinds. Thankfully, you did not call a raise with 42o. But, on both I gave you a hard time after the hand. From my hand histories:

Hand 1: I call UTG, UTG+1 calls, a loose LP player calls, you complete for $3 in the sb w/ 42o, BB (bad player) checks. Flop comes A49 rainbow and gets checked around. Turn comes 4 and you bet, everyone folds except BB. Horrible BB calls you down on the river with 95o.

Completing the sb is bad here. You needed a lot more callers for this to considered, like the whole table, if you ask me. You played it fine after that, obviously. Of course, what would have done if someone did bet the flop?

Hand 2: table has gone temporarily 7 handed. I raise UTG. Everyone folds and you call in the BB with J9o. Flop comes T94 rainbow. You bet out and I raise, you call. Turn comes Q and is checked around. River comes 8 you bet your straight, I call.

Here, I thought the call with J9o was marginal. Suited, ok. As it turned out, I had 77 and was trying to take advantage of a short table and you had me on the flop. I normally would limp w/ 77 on a full table. I should have folded on the river, at least, since you obviously had at least one of the overcards.