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  #11  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:11 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Rochester, NH
Posts: 400
Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming f

I'm about -35% after 60 at the $109s. I swear, it's variance! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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  #12  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:13 PM
zambonidrivr zambonidrivr is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 295
Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming f

wtf is moonsugar anyway? is that some drug i need to try and get my hands on?
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  #13  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:13 PM
gildwulf gildwulf is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: 3/6 six-max and $20-50 SNGs
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Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming f

You guys must have insane bankrolls to sustain these kind of runs. I get scared when my 1500 gets down to 1200 at the 20s:P
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  #14  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:18 PM
Slim Pickens Slim Pickens is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 786
Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming f

X: number of winning players in a tournament
Y: number of losing players in a tournament
a: average winning player $/tourn
b: average losing player $/tourn
R: rake $/tourn

Yb=Xa+R

Make up some (average) numbers for a and b and solve for Y/(X+Y).

Did I get this right? I did this on an envelope once and actually got about 90-95% losing for reasonable numbers for a and b. OK, so if I'm not retarded, using +20% ROI for the winning players, -20% for the losing players, and 2/22 for the rake, that gives me 2.5 winning players per tournament. I think -20% might be a little much for the losers, but I wouldn't know.

SlimP
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  #15  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:22 PM
TheNoodleMan TheNoodleMan is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Bloomington , IN
Posts: 325
Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming from?

[ QUOTE ]
Why do all 2+2ers go to vegas and play blackjack? that is clearly -ev.

[/ QUOTE ]
some of us can count, which makes it +ev.
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  #16  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:26 PM
RedManPlus RedManPlus is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Canada
Posts: 175
Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming f

Poker is zero sum game less the rake.

The rake or "seat charge" on Party Poker...
Is about 1.0 BB/hour.

Assuming "winning players" do about 2.0 BB/hour...
And if each table has approx 1.5 "winning players"...
And 8.5 "average players"...

From a 10 man table...
Party Poker takes 10.0 BB/hour...
And the 1.5 "winning players" siphon off 3.0 BB/hour.
And the 8.5 "average players" lose 13.0 BB/hour or 1.53 BB/hour each.

So Party nets 10/13 = 77% of the money = $350,000,000/year
Winning Players net 3/13 = 23% of the money = $105,000,000/year

Does this seem correct?
Any comments?

rm+

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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  #17  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:30 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Rochester, NH
Posts: 400
Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming f

I jumped up to the $109s when my BR hit $3000. I dropped back to the $55s when it hit $1500. My management is shoddy, at best.
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  #18  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:47 PM
Myst Myst is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 4
Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming f

[ QUOTE ]
I jumped up to the $109s when my BR hit $3000. I dropped back to the $55s when it hit $1500. My management is shoddy, at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTH? I have 8.2k and I still havent moved up to the $109s!
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  #19  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:52 PM
kyro kyro is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Rochester, NH
Posts: 400
Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming f

That's a bit extreme. Are you really afraid of an 80 buy-in drop?
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  #20  
Old 06-28-2005, 01:56 PM
Moonsugar Moonsugar is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 170
Default Re: $215: With all the 17%+ ROI winners, where are the losers coming f

My online BR is very large and I had some bad luck in the 215s but if I played the way I was playing forever, without improvement, then my BR would eventually become a problem cause I don't think I would beat the game.

I want to beat the game, I think I can beat the game once I finish these changes, thats why I went back down. If you never try though, you will never know if you can.
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