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#11
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It's an EV++ call in all 3 cases that Justin identifies. (if villain shows you 99 you can call). What impresses me is the fact that Justin is willing to risk a large portion of his chips in a marginal EV++ situation, with fairly little regard for his tournament standing. These plays build great table image. [/ QUOTE ] Why is it when someone else makes a +CEV play in a situation when they might be a dog, they are a donk, but when Z does it, you like it? I think you might be developing a poker crush [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] |
#12
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25% of the time you win 3$ = .75$ 75% of the time you lose 1$. = .75$ [/ QUOTE ] But your betting a dollar. |
#13
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you're confusing your statistics here. roughly 48k in the pot, and you need to call 24k. that means to call you need to have an ev of greater than 24k. 48+24=72k which you win 1/4 of the time. 72/4=18k. -EV. You are confusing being a 3:1 dog with winning 1/3 of the time. Being a 3:1 dog means you win 1/4 of the time. You need to be a 2:1 dog or win 1/3 of the time to make the call break even here.
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#14
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This hand is close to my heart, because I folded AK heads up this weekend with a similar flop.
It was after my wife was urging the fold, and I have been wondering about it since. Villain showed me air. |
#15
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yeah you're right.
too much backgammon. |
#16
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How did the hand play out and how did zee finish. Didn't see the end of the tournament.
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#17
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Why is it when someone else makes a +CEV play in a situation when they might be a dog, they are a donk, but when Z does it, you like it? I think you might be developing a poker crush [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] This isn't just him, this is how a large portion of internet forums work. If I shove with A8s on a blindsteal and say this at the FullContact forums, I'm a donkey. If Danny N. does it, well, [censored], he can see through the other person's soul. If I post a hand here where I flat call the flop and turn with top pair I'm a moron, but if Mason does it, he's sophisticated. [ QUOTE ] What impresses me is the fact that Justin is willing to risk a large portion of his chips in a marginal EV++ situation, with fairly little regard for his tournament standing. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think I've ever actually spoken a single word to Justin, but I am willing to bet a fairly significant sum of money that this call wasn't made because Justin was ignoring his tournament standing. |
#18
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FWIW, I was really just busting Loc's balls.
He reads my threads, calls me a donk. I read his, call him a weak tight pansy. All in good fun. I have no room to talk on the 'blinded by name' phenomenon, I was one of the first following the leaders in the infamous MLG, Sossman, Gavin "Lets teach the forum a lesson and post the most donkish play possible" thread. That thread also was the best thing to happen to my poker thinking. When I found myself reading HOH2, and saying "hmmm...I dont know if I like that play". I knew I was a better man for it. Now, I only blindly follow Sirio. He seems to nice to lead me astray. |
#19
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Can you really have a read on this guy other than he's an idiot and you hope to god he doesn't have a pocket pair or hit the flop with the 85 suited that is within his calling range.
I make calls like this sometimes but I think it's usually just because I'm ticked off because of how clueless the guy is that flat called my utg raise from the sb with a stack that size and then pushs a ragedy flop. |
#20
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Can you really have a read on this guy other than he's an idiot and you hope to god he doesn't have a pocket pair or hit the flop with the 85 suited that is within his calling range. I make calls like this sometimes but I think it's usually just because I'm ticked off because of how clueless the guy is that flat called my utg raise from the sb with a stack that size and then pushs a ragedy flop. [/ QUOTE ] Making this play doesnt mean he is a donk. I remember Gavin posting a very similar hand where he pulled a stop and go from the blinds with KQ. Really depends on your read on the original bet, and stack sizes, MTT stage, etc |
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