nl1000 6m. - turned OESD against big overbet

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason that a flop call would be okay is if you can put him on a set, and know you will get his whole stack when you hit.

If this was the case, though, you need to fold the turn.

You do not have odds to continue, and he's getting > 2:1 on his money right here, so he's not going anywhere, unless he's on a stone bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds for runner runner?

Fold flop, you're drawing thin or dead way too often.

[ahnuld]

I like the turn. BB probably has 2 pair and will fold if he isnt a calling station. He has shown pure strength and you dont seem to care. If I was him, Id probably put you on a set and fold, so unless he can beat that, nh

I would also fold the flop. I'm not a big fan of the turn push either.

When the BB comes alive like this, it usually means bottom two in my experiences, but his range is probably {99,66,33,96s,93s,63s,96o,93o,63o}. Against his range you have 44.7% equity. With your push, he is getting something like 2.7 to 1 and only needs around 27% equity to call. You have no fold equity because he obviously likes his hand with the overbets on both streets and is not going to ditch it getting 2.7 to 1.

Since he is profiting by his call, you are losing somehow I think. Isn't that in TOP somewhere? I have to go to class though so I can't calculate your EV. Could it be +EV of the dead money in the pot on the push?