A nice twist

[elindauer]

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fold. what else?

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Getting 16:1 immediately and likely 18:1 after the two bad players behind him call, you need to be very sure you are drawing dead before you can fold. I don't see anything like that here, as the button can hold AJ, AT, a middle suited ace perhaps, maybe QJs...

With the overlay you are getting for the times you are drawing live, you should call.

Good luck.
Eric

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold. what else?

[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 16:1 immediately and likely 18:1 after the two bad players behind him call, you need to be very sure you are drawing dead before you can fold. I don't see anything like that here, as the button can hold AJ, AT, a middle suited ace perhaps, maybe QJs...

With the overlay you are getting for the times you are drawing live, you should call.

Good luck.
Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that I have no implied odds, but the fact that I lose an extra bet when I hit and it's not good really slashes my effective odds, especially considering the likelihood that spades are out against me.

[rory]

Preflop it is an easy call. I don't get why people think a good player has to have you dominated here. The flop check-raise is of course correct. I guess the turn call hinges on what he would have bet the flop with and now raised the turn with,

He would have bet the flop with JT suited probably, since he is open ended. Also he would have bet with two spades, but the only sort of spades he has at like JsTs or QsTs or AsKs or AsJs, that sort of thing. Not two random spades. However once he fails to 3 bet the flop, his likelihood of holding of spades goes down a bit-- does he know enough to 3 bet spades here? It's a 5 bet cap where you are, maybe he has spades and doesn't want the other players to get raised out if you make it 4. So it's not 100% he would raise with spades and a gutshot or an overcard here.

But he did raise you on the turn. So he doesn't have JT and doesn't have two spades like QsJs. The only hands we are really afraid of are AK, KK and AA on this board. But he doesn't have KK because probably he would have 3-bet the flop and he doesn't have AA for the same reason or AK for the same reason. There is a small chance he was waiting to see if the turn was spade before raising with these hands, however, so we can't discount them entirely. So what could he have that he just calls the flop raise and raises the turn?

I think his most likely holding is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and now he has top pair plus a spade draw. He could also have KK or AA or AK and decided to play it weird. But it seems far more likely, maybe 60-70% he has those two spade hands and not one of those other hands you are drawing dead to. Getting 16-1 and likely 18-1 I think you have an easy call and an easy check-fold on the river unimproved.

[mike l.]

wow i fold that preflop every time and i dont think it's close. i hate being out of position in big pots with unsuited big cards, liable to be dominated. i think it's a clearcut -EV and things only get worse when the board comes as it did, the pot gets big and youre tested on the turn. and im not being results oriented, gabe and i were just joking around last night on the phone about this exact sort of thing, how errors compound.

that said, you need to call the turn and hope to hit one of your very few outs, and once you do pray you werent drawing dead. pot's too big to do anything else.

[Clarkmeister]

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wow i fold that preflop every time and i dont think it's close.

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Get real. See my response to TSP.

[Lawrence Ng]

I choose to muck here. It's a tough laydown, but I do it. It looks very likely that the button was looking for the opportunity to raise the turn instead to trap for an extra big bet from all other hands.

Lawrence

[mike l.]

"Get real."

im dead serious. i see what youre saying but that doesnt matter. another problem is what the limpers have and how tenacious they will be postflop. there's no value in playing that hand in that spot. change it to 30-60 or 15-30 and youre fine i guess.

ask gabe and if he says he'd play that there he's lying. in fact ill call him right now.

[Clarkmeister]

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another problem is what the limpers have

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They have garbage. Duh.

[mike l.]

gabe just said he folds but it's not that big a deal if you call.

told you so.

[mike l.]

"They have garbage. Duh."

if button's hand range is so wide (J9s? really? and he's good?) then why not just 3 bet since your hand is clearly best.