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#11
11-10-2005, 05:34 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
heres my thought. a bettor isnt going to lay that much juice with the colts (a novice, and def not a sharp) so i think the moneyline may be deflated for those who love to chase the big payday. [/ QUOTE ] Not necessarily. From what I've heard, these super-lopsided matchups sometimes bring out a few bridge jumpers, who will bet HUGE on the favorite's money line, certain that they'll receive a quick and easy 5% return on their investment. 
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#12
11-10-2005, 05:45 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] down to +1600 uh oh [/ QUOTE ] lol yeah the difference between +1700 and 1600 is about the same as the discrepancy between +115 and +116.5....0.33% [/ QUOTE ] i dont know much about moneylines, but are guys losing value by betting the ML as opposed the spread? heres my thought. a bettor isnt going to lay that much juice with the colts (a novice, and def not a sharp) so i think the moneyline may be deflated for those who love to chase the big payday. [/ QUOTE ] When the game's good, there is value to both if the threshold between win probability and price is sufficiently high. To break even on +1600, Houston needs to win 5.88% of the time. If you've calculated the probability as higher or much higher than this, the value is there. [/ QUOTE ] yes, but like poker its not always about making moves (picks) that are +EV. for example, overlimping on the button with AA is +EV. however not raising is awful, as it is more +EV. lets say the texans spread (17.5) offers $1.35 in value for every $50 wagered and the ML offers $.99 in value for every $50 wagered (this numbers are made up of course). Why would you take money you could be putting on the bet with more +EV and put it on with less, when the results of the bet are intertwined with each other? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, we've had a similar discussion before about teasers -- where to put money. The argument I attempted to make before is that Houston +17.5 and Houston +0 are categorically different bets, even assuming the ML and spread bets are equally +EV. You said why tease Oakland +8 with a weak NO +10.5 when you can lay it all on Oak +2? Because, imo, Oakland +8 has categorically different properties than Oakland +2. It is a hedge on expected value, even when the two bets are equally +EV. I think the same case, under vastly different circumstances, applies when wagering Houston +0 vs Houston +17.5. It's hard to explain and I'm on the way out to get a drink after work so I'll try to cover this again in a few hours.
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#13
11-10-2005, 06:34 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
heres my thought. a bettor isnt going to lay that much juice with the colts (a novice, and def not a sharp) so i think the moneyline may be deflated for those who love to chase the big payday. [/ QUOTE ] For that exact reason, the favorite side is often a good bet in a spot like this (although probably not in this specific case).
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#14
11-10-2005, 07:11 PM
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Re: Hou @ Indy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] heres my thought. a bettor isnt going to lay that much juice with the colts (a novice, and def not a sharp) so i think the moneyline may be deflated for those who love to chase the big payday. [/ QUOTE ] For that exact reason, the favorite side is often a good bet in a spot like this (although probably not in this specific case). [/ QUOTE ] yeah... only real morons would chase bets like these; i.e., taking the Pats +1050 after trailing by 2 TDs at the half Monday night. Edit: This is not targeted at the OP or anyone in this thread. I have no idea if Hou +1600 or +1700 is a good bet.
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