What I thought was a great flop became a difficult flop decision

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing huge draws aggressively is hardly a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a huge draw.

I'm all in here without much hesitation, and I agree with the other posters as to being unsure whether or not its the right play.

[Andrew Fletcher]

This is a pretty easy fold, IMO. I think the bet on the flop might be a mistake. An alternative line might be to check and call a smallish bet on the flop. While you've got a potentially good draw, there are also two active players behind you. I would check to the PF raiser.

[PoBoy321]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Playing huge draws aggressively is hardly a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a huge draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he has 16 outs against an overpair (other than JJ) or bottom 2 pair, 13 outs against TPTK, JJ or 2 pair and still 9 outs with a backdoor FH possible against a set, so I think that he has a lot of equity here, the only question I see is whether or not CO's hand range is restricted only to the hands where our 2 pair and 3 of a kind outs are no good, and whether or not the fact that UTG is coming along could kill some of our outs.

[Andrew Fletcher]

it's not a huge draw. He has TPWK and a potentially beaten flush draw.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Playing huge draws aggressively is hardly a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a huge draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Especially given the action, we can't even expect to have the best draw here that often.

Calling here would be bad. Pushing may clean our remaining flush outs if UTG has a higher flush draw and folds. This is by no means a "clear fold". The only reason people are second guessing the push line is because of the narrowed hand range CO will often have here as seen from past experiences, cutting down a lot of our outs.

[PoBoy321]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not a huge draw. He has TPWK and a potentially beaten flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think "potentially" is the key there, and you do realize that CO can't have both a better hand AND a better draw, right?

[beset7]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling here would be bad. Pushing may clean our remaining flush outs if UTG has a higher flush draw and folds. This is by no means a "clear fold".

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG folds two spades and villain calls with the previously described narrow range we are double screwed. And if one of them is willing to call a push with no pair and a better flush draw, even with two overs, thats a good result.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 4s 9d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js 9s 517 52.22 473 47.78 0 0.00 0.522
As Ts 473 47.78 517 52.22 0 0.00 0.478

As I said earlier I've been pushing here but I think its a leak. People don't reraise the pot and call a push with hands I want to gamble with here. Conversely, they don't usually raise the pot and fold to a push with hands I want folding. But this is debatable and game/player dependant.

It may be semantics but I consider this a strong draw but not a big/monster draw given the action. If we can put CO squarely on TPTK or an overpair that he is capable of folding a decent percentage of the time it's a good push.

I think part of the attraction to pushing here is not having to making a tougher turn decision.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's not a huge draw. He has TPWK and a potentially beaten flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think "potentially" is the key there, and you do realize that CO can't have both a better hand AND a better draw, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

good point, you are correct from what i see.. he can't have a better hand and a better draw.

if he has better hand, then you have "24 simple outs" over two cards.

if he has better draw, you're ahead, but now he probably has the "30 outs" over two cards.

i forgot to account for the fact that the some of the other flush cards are likely out of the deck. but i'd say you are 42%-43% chance to win minimum... sorry, if i forgot that there was a 3rd guy??? but he'd probably help the situation EV-wise.