PLO8, Flop play

[Wintermute]

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A3h is even money to make the flush.

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Did you really just write that? Tell me you're not that stupid.

Go spend some time at 2dimes studying hand values, you obviously do not understand fundamental probabilies of poker.

[Wintermute]

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Why not slow down till the turn when you can then give him the chance to make an incorect call if you hit?

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If you don't see why this is exactly wrong, don't play PLO8 until you do.

[gergery]

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Maybe this has something to do with your 2.57 sigma down-swing?

A3h is even money to make the flush and get 3 or 4/4. For you to scoop you have to a) dodge a heart and b) see a non-heart A,3 or 6 (7 outs, but probably 6 assuming one of his A3 is not a heart).

Do you really want to get it all in on the flop here? Why not slow down till the turn when you can then give him the chance to make an incorect call if you hit?

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This is fundamentally very incorrect thinking.

You want to be putting money in when you have an equity advantage vs. an opponents range of hands. Nut low with backup protection, plus top pair with a 9+out straightwrap is very strong heads up, and is clearly worth going to war with. It really is not a close decision at all.

--greg

[Chamonyx]

OK then 40% with 2 cards to come. And your point is....?

[Wintermute]

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OK then 40% with 2 cards to come. And your point is....?

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Sigh. Wrong again. ~2:1 is correct, not 3:2. Aside from this positively awful mathematical error, your entire post is absolutely idiotic and positively wrong. We are all stupider for having read it. May God have mercy upon your soul.

[Chamonyx]

What am I missing here? (Seriously, it's worth a beer)

You have no hearts, you give him credit for 2. To dodge the flush you need 34/43 cards on the turn and 33/42 on the river. This gives 62% chance of missing i.e. 38% chance of hitting.

[Chamonyx]

Thanks, Greg, for the more illuminating reply.

On the face of it, it is a great hand against a wide range of playable hands - but do you still feel as good about it when someone plays it right back at you? What is your equity against hands that are strong enough to pot it back?

[Wintermute]

That's right. 37.8% chance for the flush to hit. I admit that this is actually closer to 3:2 than 2:1.

Still, 50% vs. 37.8% is a huge difference...

And more importantly, whatever odds you assign to the flush coming, your original post (the main point, before the flush-odds hijack) is still horrible.

[DyessMan89]

It seems like more and more ***holes join this site everyday. Its getting to the point where someone cant argue a point without getting raped. Tell the person hes wrong, but dont extend it upon that. Who gives you the right to say such things? Its not all of you, but some of you guys need to grow up.

Anyways, Chamonyx, you do have a flawed outlook on this. A raise is definitley in order.

[TGoldman]

My psychic powers predict that a picture of an infant will soon appear in this thread.......