Interesting turn? Maybe. I don't know.

[SlantNGo]

I'm not folding this hand on the turn. No way. If I bet it, I do it with the intention of calling it down unless a 4th spade comes. I expect to win or chop on a river blank even if he raises the turn.

With that being said, I'm not sure I mind checking behind. The only danger is when he has a low spade and would have folded the turn to a bet incorrectly.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Not a good spot but I would definitely bet and I don't think it's that close.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Aaron W.]

Here's the reason I posted this hand. Almost all of the players here are used to playing weak/bad/passive players. Against these players, a bet-fold here is automatic. However, against players who are not so weak/bad/passive, you need to consider the possibility of being bluffed, and the possibility of inducing a bluff. This isn't to say that villain is good. But players who play aggressively tend to play more correctly than passive players. So whether they are smart about their aggression or not, they are playing better by being aggressive instead of passive.

I don't like putting in 3 bets against an erratic player who can be over-aggro when a scare card comes (unless it's a good scare-card for me). I also don't like folding to a check-raise or river donk (on any card). He can make it expensive if he has a real hand, and he can make it expensive with a junk hand. For example (later in the session), I saw him 3-bet with A4 on a K432 board against a passive villain. After he got capped on the turn, he donked when the river paired the 3 (he lost to K2 who turned two pair). Players who are capable of such plays need to be taken somewhat seriously when you have a decent hand or when scare cards fall.

On the other hand, I'll gladly put in one bet against him and see a showdown. So I'll play the hand in a way that puts me in a "happy" situation instead of a "sad" situation.

So why do I think checking is better than betting? It's because my read is currently that he's a bit erratic and can be aggressive.

1) I don't know if I can trust a check-raise on the scare card enough to fold.
2) I don't know if I can trust a river donk enough to fold, especially if it's a scare card like a 4th flush card.
3) He might bet a wide range of hands on the river if I check behind, including many hands that I currently beat, hands that I will beat if he improves (if he holds a broadway card and pairs up), and even a few hands that beat me.