A9s vs PFR

[PJM1206]

Yipes, How do you discipher through all the varying views? Which are valid and which are not? Is it all style? I know we all approach the game differntly but what nags at me is that some of the comments are a quite contrary to published aurhors like Ed Miller in SSH and many others (cold calling). The over riding theme on cold calling two bets is dont unless you have a strong hand. A9s is not a strong hand unless of course that's where the disconnect is. I think A9 is marginal to week. Pre-Flop there are 6.5SB in the pot when the action gets to you. It will cost you 2SB to call so you are getting 3.25 for your bet. Now granted it is a safe assumption that all that called will put in the extra bet so that adds another 3 SB for a total of 9.5SB or increasing your odds to 4.75:1. I need help because I dont see it. Without any reads not sure the Pre-Flop is correct.

Once you are in, the pot is so big it is almost impossible to not call. I figure you have no more than 4.5 outs (generous). 1.5 for both back door draws and 1.5 for the Aces (generous) an Ace hits you probably loose to better ace but if you give credit for the aces the call on the turn makes it another marginal call.

Think you would have been much better off ditching preflop and investing your dollars in a better opportunity.

[theghost]

preflop call is marginal, but I think it's ok with this many callers (and you on the button). Folding is ok too, but playing is more fun. If an ace comes on the flop, and the pre-flop raiser bets, what do you do with that? Fold? Raise?

Flop fold is good.

If I flopped a flush draw (of any variety), I personally would not send it around 2 cold. You are right about being in a bad spot to maximize your value for a flush draw.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Yipes, How do you discipher through all the varying views? Which are valid and which are not? Is it all style? I know we all approach the game differntly but what nags at me is that some of the comments are a quite contrary to published aurhors like Ed Miller in SSH and many others (cold calling). The over riding theme on cold calling two bets is dont unless you have a strong hand. A9s is not a strong hand unless of course that's where the disconnect is. I think A9 is marginal to week. Pre-Flop there are 6.5SB in the pot when the action gets to you. It will cost you 2SB to call so you are getting 3.25 for your bet. Now granted it is a safe assumption that all that called will put in the extra bet so that adds another 3 SB for a total of 9.5SB or increasing your odds to 4.75:1. I need help because I dont see it. Without any reads not sure the Pre-Flop is correct.

Once you are in, the pot is so big it is almost impossible to not call. I figure you have no more than 4.5 outs (generous). 1.5 for both back door draws and 1.5 for the Aces (generous) an Ace hits you probably loose to better ace but if you give credit for the aces the call on the turn makes it another marginal call.

Think you would have been much better off ditching preflop and investing your dollars in a better opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, here's my explanation of why I called preflop:

4:1 for those involved in the pot, 5.5:1 to include the dead money, and I'm going to say that it'll end up being between 6.5:1 and 6:1 most of the time, so that's about 6.25:1 odds, with about 6 players, some of whom are going to have garbage.

Not too too bad. I THINK that the odds of me hitting a four-flush are like 8.5:1 (not sure about odds of hitting a flush), and the four-flush is probably going to be +EV for me.

I also think that with position and an ace I'm going to be in a good spot to make some money, because the raiser may not have an ace.

I also think that if I hit a nine, I'm going to be in a spot to make a little cash too.

I'm not really concerned too much about this hand, other than:

My position really sucks. I'm going to get run into solid hands (that the callers have) by the preflop raiser. I'm going to have to struggle to get the maximum action post-flop on my flush draws, because of my position, etc.

Your right about the cold-calling generally being wrong. I figured that a combination of pot odds and what I would consider to be a strongish hand among the marginal hands, was enough to justify a call. The true anal rapage would come if one of the blinds chose to three-bet preflop. I'm not sure what kinds of hands they would require to do that and how often they'll have them (given that I have an ace and someone else just preflop raised, which could indicate a shortage of raise-worthy cards in their hands).

To be honest, I can't put a percentage on this just yet. It's something that I would like to learn to help me really improve my game, but it's also something that I'm not going to worry about until I fix up other aspects of my game that I encounter more frequently. For now, "low" will suffice.

---

The thing is, these reasons are my best guess at why this would be a +EV call. But I don't know if the positional aspect of the hand would turn it into a -EV call, or if it's just generally a -EV call. I kinda would like for a "name brand" poster, with a lot of experience (100k-500k hands), to weigh in on the matter and settle it. I've thought about it quite a bit, but only long-term observation will really solve the puzzle.

---

Circumstances under which I would "wait for a better opportunity":

1) I was single-tabling (few hands, reducing variance would have a -EV effect on my 2 year income but would allow for a more reliable bi-weekly income)

2) Playing live (few hands)

3) Playing no-limit (where TPGK becomes -EV sometimes)

4) Playing in a tough, tight game, where it's really hard to extract money post-flop.

In this game, I'm playing a lot of hands with a lot of bad opponents and I'm trying to chase as many little edges as I can get, because there's enough of them happening often enough that they DO accumulate on my bankroll at the end of a month or two.

---

I find it interesting that many people have recommended continuing on the flop. I don't know if I like it, but they make some good arguments.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
preflop call is marginal, but I think it's ok with this many callers (and you on the button). Folding is ok too, but playing is more fun. If an ace comes on the flop, and the pre-flop raiser bets, what do you do with that? Fold? Raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't really developed a plan for that, yet...

I think it depends entirely on the texture of the board and the exact number of callers.

Folding isn't bad in many cases, AFAIK.

--Dave.

[Bodhi]

I fold preflop. There's no guarantee that the blinds will call too, and it is very likely that we have a dominated hand. Save your multiway coldcalls for pocket pairs unless this table is very passive. If the table is very passive, then I guess cold-calling is ok, but I don't think this is much better than break-even.

On the flop you could call if you knew that no one would check-raise, and I like you're folding because a lot of players with a Jack wouldn't check-raise until the turn anyway.

I would raise this flop with just about any 4 flush (for value).

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding is ok too, but playing is more fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

and winning money is more fun still. Fold.

[davelin]

It would be preferable if UTG pre-flop raised and you had cold-callers before it got to you. But still, I think this call is fine here.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
It would be preferable if UTG pre-flop raised and you had cold-callers before it got to you. But still, I think this call is fine here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very cool.

How about the fold? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It would be preferable if UTG pre-flop raised and you had cold-callers before it got to you. But still, I think this call is fine here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very cool.

How about the fold? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

With about 2 outs I think it's fine.

[PuckNPoker]

Personally I hate the CC. The raiser stats? Any other good players in the hand? You're playing for flopping a flush draw here basically.