|
|
#11
12-07-2005, 05:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
I'm not overly worried about the limpers. We're more likely to have them dominated than the reverse. It's more that there's more of a risk of the raiser having us dominated, pluse we're OOP. I'd like cold calling on the button here more than cool calling in the SB, methinks.
|
|
#12
12-07-2005, 05:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hand 2) Perhaps lead the flop in order to enlist pretty aggresive BB into protecting your hand for you. Otherwise, I don't see much else you could do. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this. Pot is very big, you might be ahead, RRer to your left. I lead out and hope to narrow it down. [/ QUOTE ] I don't like this lead. If he raises you, you haven't gained much because of how likely you are to be behind (and possibly far behind) his range. Anyone have the link to the thread in Micro (Aaron W.'s maybe) about leading into the PFR?
|
|
#13
12-07-2005, 05:50 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Hand 2) Perhaps lead the flop in order to enlist pretty aggresive BB into protecting your hand for you. Otherwise, I don't see much else you could do. [/ QUOTE ] Dont want to go HU here calling extra bets when I am behind. Check call gets my weak draw at the cheapest price. More people calling = better odds. [/ QUOTE ] You also don't want to be 5-handed with Ax, 6x, and Js3s out against you - especially when you are ahead. I think paying an extra SB (in the form of calling BB's raise) is worth the value you gain by cutting down the field.
|
|
#14
12-07-2005, 05:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
I also think a lead is better in hand 2. Yes, maybe someone is ahead of you on the flop but the pot is huge! Why give small pocket-pairs correct odds to draw? Maybe someone will fold a 5-outer if they face a raise. So absent any reads i think a lead is best. Splashing a bit in big pots is okay.
|
|
#15
12-07-2005, 05:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
I'm at work so I don't have the stove, but if you're at home fire it up and prove me wrong. Give BB a range of hands that would raise your bet. Give the other guys a range of hands that they might both hold and conceivably fold for two cold in this situation. Repeat the calculation without the other guys. Show me that your increase in equity is worth the extra SB investment.
|
|
#16
12-07-2005, 06:15 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like this lead. If he raises you, you haven't gained much because of how likely you are to be behind (and possibly far behind) his range. Anyone have the link to the thread in Micro (Aaron W.'s maybe) about leading into the PFR? [/ QUOTE ] I would really like to see this thread.
|
|
#17
12-07-2005, 06:36 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
I'll give it a shot, since I made the same claim. I made BB's hand range pretty big, since he 3-bet preflop and may be autobetting or autoraising our flop lead.
I didn't notice earlier that MP folded to BB's flop bet, so I may have to retract my claim, but I'll cook the numbers anyway. <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 29.4524 % 25.95% 03.50% { KhJh } Hand 2: 43.6975 % 39.85% 03.84% { 99+, AJs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+ } Hand 3: 20.2687 % 20.27% 00.00% { 76s } Hand 4: 06.5814 % 06.24% 00.34% { A9o }</pre><hr /> Our equity after the flop is 29% of 19SB = 5.5SB <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 39.9329 % 35.57% 04.36% { KhJh } Hand 2: 60.0671 % 55.71% 04.36% { 99+, AJs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+ } </pre><hr /> With the other two players out, our equity is 40% of 19SB = 7.6SB. We gained 2.1SB by kicking the other two guys out.
|
|
#18
12-07-2005, 06:46 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
I'll have to owe you that home work since it is getting late here on my side of the pond. I did some quick numbers just to get something and if I didn't totally mess up then hero's equity goes from around 21% to 25% even if only one of the other guys will fold. Is that worth 1 extra SB? I'm not sure yet.
|
|
#19
12-07-2005, 06:48 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
[ QUOTE ]
With the other two players out, our equity is 40% of 19SB = 7.6SB. We gained 2.1SB by kicking the other two guys out. [/ QUOTE ] If my logic is flawed here, please correct me. So we gained 2.1 SB here on a play that 1)won't always work, thereby only being worth X * 2.1 SB where X is the percentage of times this does get the other people to fold divided by 100. 2)Costs us an extra SB to do anyway. So best case scenario (it always works) we gain 1.1 SB. In order for this to be profitable it must work (remove other two players) 48% of the time.
|
|
#20
12-07-2005, 07:01 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Two KJs blind hands that suck.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] With the other two players out, our equity is 40% of 19SB = 7.6SB. We gained 2.1SB by kicking the other two guys out. [/ QUOTE ] If my logic is flawed here, please correct me. So we gained 2.1 SB here on a play that 1)won't always work, thereby only being worth X * 2.1 SB where X is the percentage of times this does get the other people to fold divided by 100. 2)Costs us an extra SB to do anyway. So best case scenario (it always works) we gain 1.1 SB. In order for this to be profitable it must work (remove other two players) 48% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] About to take a final, so can't comment more, but it costs only 1/3 of a SB, since you win often against that range.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
