Gambler's Fallacy-->Can I Call? - Page 2

FreakDaddy · #1 12-20-2005, 03:47 PM

Considering the history, I stick it all-in pre-flop. He could be setting you up for this point, but I don't mind taking that chance here. As played, I fold the flop, although I don't like it.

4_2_it · #2 12-20-2005, 03:49 PM

You are going to have to pick a spot to make a stand against this guy. If he is doing this every time, then his range of hands is wide. This is a great flop for TT. You are only an underdog to two spade overcards. Hold your nose if you must, but call.

Delphin · #3 12-20-2005, 04:38 PM

Ewww, I don't see how you can call. He may be on AK or AQ thinking his fold equity + gutshot + pair outs are good here against an overpair (he might rule out QQ-AA since you didn't reraise on the flop). He seems to have it in for you, so just wait until he does this and you have something better than an overpair.

The question I'm interested in is how you play the next hand against him when he does this. Is knowing he is capable of putting you to this decision on the flop enough to reraise all in preflop with TT next time?

#4 12-20-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He seems to have it in for you, so just wait until he does this and you have something better than an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're not willing to play back at him until you have 2 pair or more, then he has you right where he wants you.

#5 12-20-2005, 06:42 PM

Although I wouldn't feel good about laying this down, the "Don't Go Broke w/ a Pair" rule has to go into effect.

I liken this situation to a football game in which one team keeps trying to go deep on the other. If you're on defense, as you are, what do you do?

You drop back your defensive backs and give up the short stuff and wait patiently for your opponent to make a mistake.

You're still one of the bigger stacks on the table, I don't see risking it all on this hand. What's the rush? Wait until you can do it on your terms.

teamdonkey · #6 12-20-2005, 05:04 PM

villain has hero covered so the bet isn't as big as it seems. With the history between you two i'm probably calling this.

4_2_it · #7 12-20-2005, 08:34 PM

Those who are replying fold and wait for a monster are offering you death by a thousand cuts. If you continuously fold to his aggression and then all of a sudden push do you think he is going to call? Nope.

The only way to cower a bully is to punch him in the nose. If you miss and he throttles you, just dust yourself off and get right back in there.

#8 12-20-2005, 08:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Those who are replying fold and wait for a monster are offering you death by a thousand cuts. If you continuously fold to his aggression and then all of a sudden push do you think he is going to call? Nope.

The only way to cower a bully is to punch him in the nose. If you miss and he throttles you, just dust yourself off and get right back in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ what you're saying, but his opportunity (which he missed) to say "Enough!" occurred on the pre-flop. He has already shown weakness in the hand by only calling.

4_2_it · #9 12-20-2005, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Those who are replying fold and wait for a monster are offering you death by a thousand cuts. If you continuously fold to his aggression and then all of a sudden push do you think he is going to call? Nope.

The only way to cower a bully is to punch him in the nose. If you miss and he throttles you, just dust yourself off and get right back in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/ what you're saying, but his opportunity (which he missed) to say "Enough!" occurred on the pre-flop. He has already shown weakness in the hand by only calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

But his showing weakness doesn't change villain's hand. Just because villain is betting like he has AA doesn't mean he does. I agree that I would have popped him pre-flop, but this is a great flop for TT and if hero is behind now he was behind pre-flop.

Villain actually has a method to his madness and is probably not a total moron. He doesn't want a call and he is banking that the flop missed hero (since it will most of the time).

PoBoy321 · #10 12-20-2005, 09:23 PM

Given your history, I see villain playing AK, AQ, probably some worse hands, as well as PP 77-99 like this. I call this in heartbeat and if he has you beat, he has you beat. You have to make a stand against him at some point and can't just keep folding. You need to see what hands he has when he makes these plays.