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#1
12-07-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
WORD!
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#2
12-07-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
[ QUOTE ]
If he is pushing with Ax, you are at worst a 54% favorite. But maybe he is pushing A6, A5, ... He could hold 88,99 which is the worst scenario. [/ QUOTE ] Well, I think you greatly overestimate what he could be pushing here. 88, 99 is the worse scenario? Yes, an overpair is the worst scenario, but add TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA to this list. AA/KK is of course less likely because he'd probably try to keep someone in the pot, but you never know. I don't know about you, but I'd be playing QQ/JJ/TT in a manner that would look like I don't want action, because I don't, I want the blinds! Also, you say if he is playing Ax you're at worst 54%. You're right, and I hate that result! 54% of the time your pretty much out of the tournament in fourth here. I have a bubble to ITM of 75%, so I'm not taking chances when I'm likely a coinflip or dog like in this situation. According to SNGPT, he needs to be pushing 75% of hands to make this a +0.5 $EV call. 75% of hands is 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T3o+,T2s+,95o+,93s+,86o+,84s+, 76o,75s+,65s. Umm, is he pushing this range?
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#3
12-07-2005, 04:45 PM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
If you call and lose, you get 0. If you call and win, you have about twice as much as the other two, giving you about a 50% chance of winning. As a gross apoximation, let's say your EV is .4 if you call and win. 77 is going to be let's say 55% to win in this situation. So 55% of the time you win .4, and 45% of the time you win 0. This averages out to a little over .2 If you fold, your EV, without assuming you play any better than your opponents, is .25. So it's easy to see that folding is bad.
You can run this by ICM to get more accurate numbers, but suffice it to say that you need a stronger hand to call in this situation, because the cost of losing is so high. If you lose .25 when you call and lose, but only win .15 when you call and win, you are risking 5 to win 3, which means your calling hands have to be 5 to 3 favorites over whatever range the pusher is pushing with just to break even. Against a random hand, 77 is just barely above that, so if UTG has any standards whatsoever for pushing, calling with 77 will be -EV.
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#4
12-07-2005, 03:24 AM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
[ QUOTE ]
UTG seems to understand bubble play fairly well, which makes me think he is pushing any 2. [/ QUOTE ] If UTG understands bubble play fairly well, than he should know not to be pushing any two through three opponents with more than 10xBBs. I think he would have to have a very strong hand here to be doing this. He has two players that have him covered yet to act. If you call, expect to be a coinflip or a big dog the majority of the time. I don't think you are very far ahead here enough to call.
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#5
12-07-2005, 03:25 AM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
[ QUOTE ]
UTG seems to understand bubble play fairly well, which makes me think he is pushing any 2. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]... If you think pushing any 2 here is good I don't think you understand bubble play very well. If you think he's pushing 100% of hands then go ahead and make the call. But you're wrong... and you should fold.
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#6
12-07-2005, 03:29 AM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
The NE (nash equilibrium) here is ~ 22% CO push/7% Button call/4% SB call/7% BB call. This means you should call with 99+/AQs+/AKo.
He is pretty foolish if he is pushing any two. You are essentially waiting for him in the middle with 77 if he is pushing any2. Edited for ya
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#9
12-07-2005, 03:22 PM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The NE here is ~ 22/7/4/7. [/ QUOTE ] What's this mean? [/ QUOTE ] volunarily put $ in pot not sure what the 7 is and 4 = pfr [/ QUOTE ] Ummm... no. It means "UTG should push top 22% of hands", "Cutoff should call a push with top 7% of hands", etc. The "Nash Equilibrium" part implies that if three of the four players follow the strategy outlined, the fourth player cannot do any better than to also follow the strategy. So, if everybody knows that everybody else is playing the NE, there is no gain to deviating from it. It's highly theoretical, obviously, but absent any reads it is in some sense the "best" mathematical answer.
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#10
12-07-2005, 03:37 AM
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Re: $55 bubble hand.
[ QUOTE ]
The NE (nash equilibrium) here is ~ 22% CO push/7% Button call/4% SB call/7% BB call. This means you should call with 99+/AQs+/AKo. He is pretty foolish if he is pushing any two. You are essentially waiting for him in the middle with 77 if he is pushing any2. Edited for ya [/ QUOTE ] Of course you shouldn't call with the hands mentioned because of some theory, its unlikely your opponents are playing perfect theoretical poker. In any case I'd always fold here, and would never push 22% of hands as the cutoff in practice.
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