We were all having so much fun I figured why stop the party at 3?

[runa]

I wasn't sure there was another way to look at it. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

If we devalue the ace outs and give 8 to the OESD, that gives us 9.5 outs.

I am assuming we will be taking this to the river so:
Chance to improve on turn = 9.5/47 ~ 20%
Chance to improve on river = 9.5/46 ~ 20%
Combined chance to improve = 40% (add since its an or function)
This translates to 2.5:1 to improve
Since there are 2 others in the pot with me I'm getting 2:1 on each bet put in, so this seems like a posEV raise.

If you're talking about accounting for the times I split the pot when I do complete my straight, I'm not certain how to devalue the OESD outs to account for this. Any tips?

[JinX11]

[ QUOTE ]
Chance to improve on turn = 9.5/47 ~ 20%
Chance to improve on river = 9.5/46 ~ 20%
Combined chance to improve = 40% (add since its an or function)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummmm...

So, if event A is 50% likely to occur and event B is 50% likely to occur, I can be 100% sure that either A or B will happen???

Negative.

[27offsooot]

Possibility of a split pot/ redraws for a set or two pair/ ace out being worthless makes your outs far less than 9.5 IMO. Flop seemed to be destined to be capped regardless though. Worth the call, but don't get cute with a lot of dubious outs. If the raise could get u a free card, maybe raise, but here, it won't.

[lu_hawk]

You don't add probablities like that to get the overall probability. You multiply the chance that it won't happen. So in your case it is not .2+.2 it is 1-(.8*.8) which gives you a 36% chance to improve.

Plus you have a 1 card OESD to the non-nuts so you have to devalue it some for the times you split or lose to a higher straight.

[runa]

Thanks, I realized my mistake soon after, need to brush up on my probability. I also screwed up the total ratio. Nonetheless:

36% ~ 1.7:1 on a 2:1 shot. This still seems posEV unless I devalue the OESD str8 outs somehow.

The real topic of this thread should be then how I devalue the outs of the OESD for the non-nut straight, and I don't think I know a quick and dirty way to figure that one out. Anybody?

[nebben]

Is it possible to approach this from a pot equity respect?
Because you actually seem to have a pot equity deficit in my opinion. I know this only applies to raising for value, but your unlikely to win by spiking your ace in my opinion to a three better, so its really all about your gutshot isnt it? and even that has to be devalued giving the action.

Is this the wrong way of looking at it?

[Number4]

I agree with thief - looks like chip spewing to me. Also, I think it was the first poster who said it, but I would like the cap only with a backdoor flush draw.

p.s. - Are you familiar with the Hiten Mitsurugi fighting style?

[runa]

Actually given the 3-bet from a LA-A I don't give it that much credit and I think the A outs devalued to 1.5 may even be a generous assumption. I'm not good at calculating pot equity but I'm willing to hear your take on it.

[runa]

I agree that a backoor flush draw would help quite a bit. In that case you'd advocate a cap or still against it?

p.s. As it relates to poker, perhaps the ability to react to my opponents playing aura (playing style) and strike appropriately (superior poker strategy) I think I am working on it. If you want me to bust out a Hiten Mitsurugi Ouki Ama Kakeru Ryu No Hirameki in a Batto Jutsu (HU match) then forget about it.

[CinnamonWind]

[ QUOTE ]
chip spewing

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, did you have to have someone hold back your hair for this? :P